Quote:
Originally Posted by indes
I think it would be insane.
Guaranteed $128M (8x16)
vs
Guaranteed $32M (2x16) +
Possible $132M (8x16.5)
He could get injured or sick and miss out on $96 MILLION. No one in their right mind takes $164M possible dollars instead of a guaranteed $128M. It's not even just a career ending injury. He could get ill like Toews, cancer like Mario, Blood clots, heart conditions - He could lose part of his heel like Karlsson in those 2 years. The risk v reward isn't even close imo.
All the numbers I used are 14% of the cap, which is where he is now and where I think teams will keep it, to try and be competitive. He's McDavid but I don't think any team is going to sign him much higher than that because they'll never have a chance at winning.
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Let’s say he blows his ACL next year or is concussed. Multiple teams would still sign him to 8 x 12.5 not knowing the outcome. Look at Eichel, Vegas still gave up significant assets for him despite the neck risks.
So the bet isn’t 128 vs 164/0. It’s more like 100 floor 168 peak. He likely could insure himself for future earnings for less money then the difference between the two options presented and turn both options into guaranteed pay days.