Quote:
Originally Posted by FlamesDraftPrognosticator
It's not unreasonable to think that some people have a sharp eye for talent while others may lack this ability. It's surprising to suggest that someone can't distinguish a talented player from one who isn't. After all, this is precisely why there are good scouts and bad scouts in hockey. This disparity in talent recognition is exactly why some teams excel at identifying skilled players, while others struggle in this area.
I think it would be a interesting idea for the 2025 draft and the future drafts to put each of our talent evaluating reputations on the line assessing first rounders in this class and future classes and seeing how each of our picks turn out a few years down the road.
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You’re right, it’s not unreasonable. I just don’t have any reason to believe you have the ability based on your comments. I imagine that most people in scouting and player development know, considering most fans also know, that development isn’t linear and takes more than a year to play out.
The reason consensus first overalls can turn out to be busts is because of this. If it was really just a matter of whether there were good scouts and bad scouts, these players wouldn’t be number one, because the good scouts wouldn’t rank them that highly. It’s fun to believe there’s just good ones and bad ones, but that doesn’t explain why nearly every team passed on a player like Kucherov twice, or why Wolf was a 7th round pick, or Gaudreau a 4th. It’s one thing to identify talent, but nobody can predict the future or exactly how a development curve is going to go, or how guys are going to show up once they actually turn pro.
AL was ranked between 2 and 6 most places I saw. He was predicted as a guy that needed 2-3 years before he was NHL ready and that’s looking accurate. Maybe he turns out as the second best player in the draft, maybe not, but you’re being silly if you think you know any better than I do or the many, many scouts who ranked him second.
Feel free to put your money where your mouth is and rank this year’s draft though. Go up to top 30. Will happily eat crow if you want to bring it up down the line, especially if you don’t just copy and paste someone else’s rankings lol.