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Calgary4LIfe · 01-07-2025, 02:06 PM

I would look at the bottom 10 standings from last year.

San Jose - Chicago - Anaheim - Columbus - Montreal - Arizona - Ottawa - Seattle - Calgary - New Jersey.

If you look at their rosters to start last year, and then look at their rosters to start this year, which of these would you say have gotten worse. I can only point at one for sure, and that's Calgary. Seattle is sort of 'meh', but I don't think they got worse. With the horrible Gaudreau tragedy, one can point at Columbus. All of those teams have injected a lot of youth (or are in the middle of it), and are expected to get better naturally. Some will flounder, that's for sure, but if you are going to just look at rosters year-to-year, I can only point at the Flames for actively getting worse. Now look at Calgary's cap space available.

If this doesn't tell you that Calgary is in a rebuild, then nothing will.

I trust Conroy here. Halfway through the 2013-14 season, the Flames started overachieving. The underlying metrics stated that it was unsustainable, but they sustained it right through to the end of the playoffs in the 2015 season. They worked their butts off every single night, and they had league-average goaltending. At some point, that kind of effort makes an 82 game season exceptionally grueling, so long-term it isn't sustainable. I look at that team, and I see a team with a lot more firepower than this one. That team pretty much fooled Treliving into believing that they were further ahead in their rebuild than they actually were, and he started making a series of moves to enhance the team.

I don't think Conroy is going to do this. I think he is going to let this team bottom-out. Build through the draft. Then rise up again on the backs of the youth.

At the start of the season, he trotted out the word retool often. During one media availability, someone directly asked what he means by that - they asked for definitions. The definitions that he provided were spot on with rebuild = scorched earth, and retool = rebuild. When you hear retool, what does that mean to you? To me, it means a major move where you replace a core piece or two, and then get back to competing, right? A rebuild is something that takes a a few seasons. A scorched-earth rebuild is when you gut your team completely. On top of this, he has stated in a couple of media interviews that "We just need to be patient. This will take a few seasons."

Maloney stating 'playoffs!" is the exact same as Feaster stating that the mandate is "playoffs" right after trading Iginla and Bouwmeester away. He then had to put on another availability due to the media/fan backlash assuming that Edwards wasn't going for a rebuild after all. I didn't like Feaster much, but one of the things he got right was his feel of that team before the rebuild, calling it a 'sickness' where they were consistently below expectations. That's what Conroy and Maloney mean by playoffs - winning should always be the goal. It is management's job to create the roster, it is up to the coach and players to play hard. A GM's mandate HAS to be 'playoffs!" to the the coach and players.

I am not so worried about this team avoiding a rebuild somehow. They are in one. They are just - like the 2013-15 Flames - exceeding expectations, and this is providing a very good environment to develop guys like Zary, Pospisil, Wolf, Bahl, Coronato and Pelletier now. You want to create that culture and keep it in place. That's part of rebuilding - you are rebuilding the culture as well as the personnel.

At some point, they will simply bottom out. As of now, they sit just outside the wildcard spot. However, they also sit 4 points out of a top 10 pick. Even more interestingly, they sit 6 points out of a top 5 pick. That's the parity this year.

However, if they keep winning, that's ok. The most important thing to me is that Conroy doesn't get fooled by their results, and instead keeps going ahead with whatever plan he laid out. Conroy had a front row seat to that 2013-15 over-achievement, and he had a front row seat to all the moves and signings that were made that worked and didn't work, and what the overall result was, and probably has a few ideas of his own as to why that team never had any real playoff success.

I think the Flames are on the right track here. It wouldn't surprise me if, on paper, next season's Flames were even a little worse on paper again. I guess we will see. To me, my own personal confirmation bias tells me that they are in the early stages of a rebuild - this is the 2013-14 season, only instead of their #1 pick playing in the NHL this year, he is playing in the OHL. That's where I think this team is in their arc, anyway.

01-07-2025, 02:06 PM	#6091
Calgary4LIfe Franchise Player Join Date: Jun 2010 Exp:	I would look at the bottom 10 standings from last year. San Jose - Chicago - Anaheim - Columbus - Montreal - Arizona - Ottawa - Seattle - Calgary - New Jersey. If you look at their rosters to start last year, and then look at their rosters to start this year, which of these would you say have gotten worse. I can only point at one for sure, and that's Calgary. Seattle is sort of 'meh', but I don't think they got worse. With the horrible Gaudreau tragedy, one can point at Columbus. All of those teams have injected a lot of youth (or are in the middle of it), and are expected to get better naturally. Some will flounder, that's for sure, but if you are going to just look at rosters year-to-year, I can only point at the Flames for actively getting worse. Now look at Calgary's cap space available. If this doesn't tell you that Calgary is in a rebuild, then nothing will. I trust Conroy here. Halfway through the 2013-14 season, the Flames started overachieving. The underlying metrics stated that it was unsustainable, but they sustained it right through to the end of the playoffs in the 2015 season. They worked their butts off every single night, and they had league-average goaltending. At some point, that kind of effort makes an 82 game season exceptionally grueling, so long-term it isn't sustainable. I look at that team, and I see a team with a lot more firepower than this one. That team pretty much fooled Treliving into believing that they were further ahead in their rebuild than they actually were, and he started making a series of moves to enhance the team. I don't think Conroy is going to do this. I think he is going to let this team bottom-out. Build through the draft. Then rise up again on the backs of the youth. At the start of the season, he trotted out the word retool often. During one media availability, someone directly asked what he means by that - they asked for definitions. The definitions that he provided were spot on with rebuild = scorched earth, and retool = rebuild. When you hear retool, what does that mean to you? To me, it means a major move where you replace a core piece or two, and then get back to competing, right? A rebuild is something that takes a a few seasons. A scorched-earth rebuild is when you gut your team completely. On top of this, he has stated in a couple of media interviews that "We just need to be patient. This will take a few seasons." Maloney stating 'playoffs!" is the exact same as Feaster stating that the mandate is "playoffs" right after trading Iginla and Bouwmeester away. He then had to put on another availability due to the media/fan backlash assuming that Edwards wasn't going for a rebuild after all. I didn't like Feaster much, but one of the things he got right was his feel of that team before the rebuild, calling it a 'sickness' where they were consistently below expectations. That's what Conroy and Maloney mean by playoffs - winning should always be the goal. It is management's job to create the roster, it is up to the coach and players to play hard. A GM's mandate HAS to be 'playoffs!" to the the coach and players. I am not so worried about this team avoiding a rebuild somehow. They are in one. They are just - like the 2013-15 Flames - exceeding expectations, and this is providing a very good environment to develop guys like Zary, Pospisil, Wolf, Bahl, Coronato and Pelletier now. You want to create that culture and keep it in place. That's part of rebuilding - you are rebuilding the culture as well as the personnel. At some point, they will simply bottom out. As of now, they sit just outside the wildcard spot. However, they also sit 4 points out of a top 10 pick. Even more interestingly, they sit 6 points out of a top 5 pick. That's the parity this year. However, if they keep winning, that's ok. The most important thing to me is that Conroy doesn't get fooled by their results, and instead keeps going ahead with whatever plan he laid out. Conroy had a front row seat to that 2013-15 over-achievement, and he had a front row seat to all the moves and signings that were made that worked and didn't work, and what the overall result was, and probably has a few ideas of his own as to why that team never had any real playoff success. I think the Flames are on the right track here. It wouldn't surprise me if, on paper, next season's Flames were even a little worse on paper again. I guess we will see. To me, my own personal confirmation bias tells me that they are in the early stages of a rebuild - this is the 2013-14 season, only instead of their #1 pick playing in the NHL this year, he is playing in the OHL. That's where I think this team is in their arc, anyway.