[GGG]

Originally Posted by cral12

With all their inherent weaknesses, all the prediction models seem to swinging back to favouring tRump fwiw, but appears to be very much a coin toss.

Bonkers.

"The most recent end-of-day electoral vote forecast (270 needed to win):

Rebublican: Trump/Vance (275)
Democratic: Harris/Walz (263)
The vice presidential debate had an influence on forecasted electoral votes, with Vance showing a slight advantage over Walz. Most movement in October has been in the direction of the Republican ticket:

September 30: Harris/Walz (308), Trump/Vance (230)
October 1: Harris/Walz (302), Trump/Vance (236)
October 2: Harris/Walz (292), Trump/Vance (246)
October 3: Harris/Walz (298), Trump/Vance (240)
October 4: Harris/Walz (288), Trump/Vance (250)
October 5: Harris/Walz (283), Trump/Vance (255)
October 6: Harris/Walz (283), Trump/Vance (255)
October 7: Harris/Walz (268), Trump/Vance (270)
October 8: Harris/Walz (268), Trump/Vance (270)
October 9: Harris/Walz (263), Trump/Vance (275)
We have not identified a single event to explain the drop in end-of-day forecasts for the Democratic ticket between October 6 and 7. The expanding war in the Middle East, perhaps? Fundamentally, we are a divided nation, and this is looking like a toss-up election.

Trading volumes have been low since the VP debate on October 1, but slightly higher in the last couple days. October could be a wild ride.

For the first time in US history, we have seen a presidential election go from toss-up to Republican landslide, to toss-up, to a possible Democratic landslide, and back to what could be a toss-up. With about a month to go before election day, there is much uncertainty about the future."
https://virtualtout.com/

Plus this one which updates 6 prediction models + the betting odds:
(though the 6 still slightly favour Kamala, they seem to be swinging more tRumps way. Betting odds keep going tRump's way and seem to be strengthening...)
https://www.whoisgoingto.win/

Anyone in the Silver is artificially inflating trumps odds of winning to drive bets to poly market camp like to explain why all models are very similar?