Quote:
Originally Posted by marsplasticeraser
I've listened to Nate and read his books and blog posts for 10+ years, he seems the same as ever.
He has also clearly described how his model is the one from 538 and why there has been a widening difference in predictions.
Nates model is largely polls based.
538 has a new model that they created, and it assigns a large weighting to fundamentals. This means it's discounting actual polls to favour of things that are more opinions.
Personally, i don't think fundamentals are going to play as big of a factor this year due to the rhetoric and misinformation campaigns, so I would favour the polls based approach that Nate is following.
Finally, Nate just said on the Rest is POlitics podcast that he wouldn't be on a 50:50 race as it's a coin flip. 50:50 is what his model says the race is now, as well as betting sites like polymarket are saying.
Where he said it makes sense to bet is where the markets are quite different from his model (for example 2016, when convention had Clinton at 95%+, and Nate had her around 70%).
In addition he said he could bet based on early results, as his model will identify trends that will not be apparent.
Anyways, maybe I'm wrong and this is all a very elaborate con game that will cost Nate his future as a political pundit. If this is a con game, then the worst case is that more people get out to vote for Harris.
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You might say you are a fan of his...
his is obviously influencing opinion while being on the board of the biggest election betting platform.
he stands to gain more from a Trump loss...ideally after pushing more betters that direction as he already has.