Quote:
Originally Posted by marsplasticeraser
Are you the guy that's posted on here and doesn't understand how statistics work? I can't remember, but your post would indicate you are.
Anyways, Nate is a stats nerd doing nerdy things.
To simplify this, what Nate does is quite simple.
He aggregates all the polls, but he adjusts or reduces the impact of that poll based on that pollsters history of accuracy.
So a poll from a pollster that is all over the map doesn't have much impact. A pollstar that is always left leaning or right leaning is adjusted. Pollsters that are pretty accurate have more impact because they have a history of good polling.
You may not understand what he does, but there's almost no analysis, just computations based on historical data and current data.
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Well that wasn't me and you are explaining the old Nate...he is heavily invested in Trump being perceived as the "favourite" The guy stands to gain MILLIONS of dollars from Trump being the betting favourite and losing. I would not be looking to him and his method right now.
We can see how it plays out but I think his numbers are inaccurate