Quote:
Originally Posted by CliffFletcher
Clearly there isn’t going to be any kind of clear cut data on it. So we have to make inferences.
The majority of Americans who earn in the top 40 per cent support the Democrats.
https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-b...ection-1806747
65 percent of taxpayer households that earn more than $500,000 per year are in Democratic districts.
https://www.thenation.com/article/so...h-party-obama/
I don’t think it’s a stretch to think there’s a strong correlation between earning in the top 10-40 per cent of income and being in the managerial class. |
I wonder how much of that is blue state/red state and urban/rural disparities being amplified over time. For instance, in 2010 California's median household income was 15% higher than the national state average whereas now it's 22% higher. Or Washington, where it was 11% above the average in 2010 and now it's 21% higher. Whereas a place like Wyoming, which is considered the reddest state, has seen its household income go from 107% of the national average to only 94%.
That obviously doesn't totally explain the shift, but when regions (particularly populous ones) that were already voting Democrat see their incomes rise faster than regions that vote Republican, then it's going to show up as stronger support among high earners, even if few people are actually changing their votes.
Just to use another example. In 2010 the median Oregon household earned about 9% more than the median Louisiana household; now they earn almost 40% more. If you compare the 2012 election to the 2020 election though, those states didn't see big shifts in Presidential party support. But if you tied it to income, then there would be a noticeable shift, simply due to Oregon incomes rising much faster than Louisiana ones.
Again, I don't think that explains all or even most of the effect, but it is part of it.