Quote:
Originally Posted by BigThief
10th overall pick for the Devils doesn't move the needle for a young team on the cusp like the Devils, a number one goalie does. Luke Hughes 20, Simon Nemec 20, Dawson Mercer 21, Alex Holtz, 21, Jack Hughes 22, Nico Hishier 24, Jesper Bratt 25, Timo Meier 26...that's an incredibly young core and a good GM doesn't want to waste it on bottom feeding and second chance goalies.
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I think this is the kind of thinking that makes teams try to accelerate their rebuild and hurt themselves in the long run. Players are making bigger and bigger impacts at young ages. Like you said, Jack Hughes is only 22 and Hischier is 24 and they are already the main stars on that team. In 4 years, when that 10OA pick is 22, Jack would only be 26 and Hischier 28 (ie. In the prime of their careers). Markstrom would be retired or in the tail end of his career. NJ has way more runway on their competitive window than you are suggesting here.
If I were NJ, I'd keep that 10OA, just like I'd want the Flames to keep it if we were in the same situation. NJ may be desperate and make the mistake of trading that pick for Markstrom, but it would be a mistake all the same. I can only hope that NJ is truly desperate. The question then becomes, how desperate are they really and how much more do we have to give up to entice them into making that mistake.
I see people throwing out 10OA and Holtz for Markstrom retained and justifying retention has having significant value. I see the models saying how much retention is worth. At the end of the day, I just don't see NJ, or any team, desperate enough to say yes, I'm willing to give up the value based on all of these models to get Markstrom.
The Flames may be the ones sticking to the models, and NJ are the ones not willing to meet the price. That's why no deal is done.
My guess is, if we do want the 10OA, we'd have to give something back and meet NJ in the middle. Something like Markstrom + Pospisil + 2nd for 10OA + Allen + something small?