Quote:
Originally Posted by Blaster86
Oilers record vs Top 10 by p% in 2023-24: 4-9-1
Canucks record vs Top 10 by p% in 2023-24: 9-3-2
Flames actually have a better record vs these teams than the Oilers at 8-9-0. The increased games caused by the fact they see both the Canucks and Oilers.
Long story is, as a Canucks fan, I'm fine with top ten teams. More of those, please.
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I guess the question we need to ask is, "Does regular season record against top ten teams have any kind of significance come playoff time?".
I just did a quick look at the finalists from last season.
Oilers went 3-1 vs Vegas in the reg season.
Panthers went 1-3 vs Toronto and 1-2 vs Carolina.
You know which teams won these series.
Vegas was 10W-14L against top ten teams during the 22/23 regular season.
Florida was 8W-19L.
Last year showed zero correlation between regular season Win % vs top ten teams and playoff success for the finalists.
There is no real smoking gun stat for predicting playoff success.
Points % and Expected Goals For % are currently the most accurate, but far from being a slam dunk.
Corsi used to be the best predictor, but has fallen off consistently since it became a main focus of conversation.
I got the data from this article:
https://chacemccallum.substack.com/p...s%20been%20xG.
I think in general its best to use the largest sample sizes possible, and breaking the regular season results into smaller segments is going to do more harm than good.