Huberdeau's never really been a sniper. He's hit 30 goals twice in his career (exactly 30 goals, both times), including his 115 point season.
He doesn't get a lot of high danger shots, as he's hardly ever in those hard-to-get-to areas. From what I've seen over the years, his shots are mostly from in front, but mid-range and from the med-low danger areas. Those shots require a lot of external factors before they become goals. Blockers have to miss, goalies have to be screened, he doesn't have much of a one-timer, so there's not a lot of surprise on his side... except of course for when he avoids the shot altogether in favour of a pass... but that tends to even surpise his own linemates.
He needs a Bennett/Wenberg. Someone who drives the net and lives in that high danger area and causes nothing but chaos when they're there. Someone who really doesn't care if Huberdeau's shooting or passing, because they're a friggin puckhound who will just capitalize on whatever happens.
Huberdeau's bread and butter is the apple. That's where his points come from, and he needs that banger in the middle of the ice and the two-way backchecker with finishing ability on his opposite wing.
I feel like he finally has the right mix of guys with Backlund and Coleman, but they need to switch positions. Coleman is a more stable Bennett and Backlund is kind of a lower offence / higher defence Duclair.
Anyway, I get that we can look at it as his been "unlucky" in the goal-scoring department, but his play style and shot selections both require a higher degree of "luck". It shouldn't matter though, because his points come from assists anyway... but that's the part that stands to me. Coleman is one of our best goal scorers this year, and Backlund seems to have rounded back into form lately as well... but Huberdeau isn't getting any assists off of any of that action. That's the most worrying part. I mean, I get he does some away-from-the-puck stuff that helps out the line, and maybe even requires some defensive attention from the opposition when he's out there, which might take some heat off of Coleman... but I mean, those are what you pay role players for. Those are supposed to just be minor traits that help make up a franchise player... not be their primary addition to a line.
Anyway, I didn't start this post wanting to rag on Huberdeau. I agree he's looked better as of late, but my contention isn't that the points will start to come... it's that either Backlund and Coleman have to switch positions, or Huberdeau has to start (continue, maybe?) adjusting to things being reversed. Meaning less of the netfront-but-low-danger stuff and more of just getting involved with what the other two guys on his line are trying to do. North/South, high pressure, fight for the puck and stop the surprize passing that's really just a fancy giveaway. He just doesn't have that guy in the middle who's gonna bang away in front of the net for him.
Also, I keep using "luck" in quotes, because I don't really think of under/over-expected as being a luck thing. I think of is just certain areas of the ice and certain shot selections require more external factors than others. Like look at Zary... there are comments that suggest he's been incredibly lucky so far... but then again, he has 7 goals and 5 of them are high-dangers. He missed the first 10 games of the season, but he's only 2 shots off the league average in high-danger shots. I look at a guy like Zary as just being someone who doesn't need a lot of things to happen in order to score a goal. It's also a lot easier for him to get assists when you consider he's playing with two other guys who also love playing in the high danger area... which is a huge benefit for sure.
Actually that drives me nuts a bit... because Huberdeau and Kadri should technically be perfect together... but Kadri's too competitive. He doesn't have patience for things that aren't clicking right away, so he reverts to trying to do it all himself (puck hogging). Then again, that's a nother thing about Zary and Pospisil. Kadri passes to them. He sets them up, he lets them carry. He's a completely different player with them, and much closer to the Colorado Kadri. Like, he just wants to win and if his linemates can help with that, then he's just a really, really good player. (That's kind of a knock against Kadri, more than it's a good thing about Zary and Pospisil, but "really good Kadri" is not a bad payoff to get from it.)
K, anyway I'm done. I'm sure I've left tons of holes all throughout my post, and maybe I'll learn a few things because of that... but this is where my head's at right meow at least.
Edit: Here's a good visual of the 3 danger areas. Blue = high, red = medium, orange = low. (I know that's obvious to some, but maybe not to others.)
Look at that, and think about all the places you usually see Huberdeau shooting from.