Thread: [Game Takes] Canucks 4 Flames 3
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Old 12-03-2023, 02:50 PM   #118
cannon7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
I'm saying you'd have to look into it to know either way.

Otherwise you're just walking out a bias aren't you?
By "looking into it" you mean making a subjective judgment on every first goal against? Wouldn't that introduce bias either way?

Lets put it this way: excluding 0-0 games that go to a shootout there is always a first goal for one side or the other. So all things being equal, the odds should be 50/50 that your goalie gives up the first goal. Now for a team like the Sharks, where goals and wins are hard to come by, one would reasonably expect a higher than average rate of first goals against. Alternatively a top team like the Bruins or Golden Knights, where goals and wins have been easier to come by, should have comparatively a lower than average first goal against rate. Given this, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect a team flirting around .500 to have a first goal against rate somewhere in the middle?

We've all seen the statistic of how important the first goal is to winning a game. The fact that the Flames have as many wins as they do despite their goaltending giving up first goals at a considerably higher rate than average should be (arguably) a credit to the team in front of them. Imagine if we were just average in terms of first goals against?
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