The season is somehow 1/4 of the way done even though it feels like it's just getting started. The team sits just outside of a wild card spot, amongst a group of teams that just seemingly won't buckle down and take a spot. A -12 goal differential through 21 games is indicating a team that just isn't particularly good, although their past 10 games have been a lot better than their first 11.
Continuing along the same lines of analysis as
this post from last year, I was curious to see what the #s would be like for this season. To summarize:
%SGA=% stoppable goals against (what percent of goals against are stoppable by the Flames goalies)
USGA/gp=Unstoppable goals against/game played (how many unstoppable goals are the Flames D giving up)
USGF/gp=Unstoppable goals for/game played (how many unstoppable goals for are the Flames O generating)
P(PG)/gp= Extra Points (Perfect Goalie)/game played (how many extra points achieved per game played if Flames goalies were hypothetically perfect)
year--------------%SGA----USGA/gp----USGF/gp---EP(PG)/gp
2021-2022-------29.1------1.7----------2.29--------0.3
2022-2023-------34.1------1.89---------2.12--------0.46
2023-2024-------43--------1.81---------1.71--------0.57
Through 21 games, a full 43% (over 4 in 10!) goals against Flames netminders this year have been stoppable goals that they should have been able to save. League average is typically around 28-30%.
The defense has been allowing a normal-ish level of unstoppable chances against, a little better than last year, not as good as 2021/22.
The offense has fallen off a cliff. There's no way to isolate this stat to 5v5 vs PP, but I'd bet this has a lot to do with a power play that just isn't working. The Flames have not been able to generate a lot of open tap ins.
This last stat EP(PG)/gp is kind of galaxy brain math, but it shows that the goalies have been giving away points at a higher rate than even last year so far this season. I have not done the league wide analysis to know if 0.57 EP(PG)/gp is good/bad/awful but it is definitely worse than it was for the Flames the last couple years.
Somewhat interestingly, opposing netminders have been unusually leaky against the Flames this year, having surrendered 36% of their goals against as stoppable. It could be that bad opposing goalies have been making this team look a bit better offensively than it might actually be.
Feel free to ask me about this analysis. It is subject to the bias of having essentially one guy assign every goal as stoppable and unstoppable of course but if we can assume that they are fair, then I think the analysis can be treated as sound.
Judging by this, I think the Flames are a good bet to miss the playoffs and fall down in the conference unless something changes with the goalies and the offense picks it up. At the end of the day, a positive goal differential is pretty much what you need to make the playoffs, the Flames are negative on this in real life and if they were living in a world where all the goalies were perfect. Opposing goalies will start saving goals at better rates and even if the Flames goalies turn it around, the offense is still not scoring enough.
I'm hoping for continued progression from the younger players and for the impending UFAs to show some value but any meaningful hockey in March and April i think is just going to be a bonus. The past 10 games have been really solid and I think the Flames have deserved to have won most of them. Maybe they've turned a corner, maybe not.