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Originally Posted by Itse
Both of these thoughts are false, especially the latter one.
Even though we don't know the full truth, we do know with a really high certainty that the sanctions have had a really significant effect on Russian economy, and by extension their war efforts.
There have been extremely significant and very obvious things going on, like Russia constantly dipping deeper and deeper into Soviet stockpiles instead of replenishing their modern equipment, Russian missile and drone bombardment of Ukraine being severely hampered by their difficulties to independently produce those things, and very likely they've been holding back on drafting more men simply because the numbers they have at the front are pretty much the numbers they can handle.
When they did the latest draft rounds, they had significant trouble finding even basic kits for their troops. They've been short on trucks and modern APC's, they have a severe lack of night vision equipment... If they had had all their previous oil and gas money and their normal ability to go shopping with them, none of that stuff would have been an issue.
I get that it's kind of hard to think about the what-if counter-factual situation where the sanctions never happened, but when you do, it's pretty obvious that the sanctions have had a very direct and likely significant impact.
It's also worth pointing out that for all we know right now, the Russian defensive front or their economy might very well completely collapse in something like six months, resulting in a total Ukrainian victory, even if the support to Ukraine doesn't evolve from where it's at. Or it might not, but we don't know.
As for whether the fight is worth it, Ukrainians overwhelmingly agree with Zelenskiy that they believe they can win this thing and that the fight is worth it, and because it's their country, it's their call. They know the amount of destruction they're suffering better than anyone else, they can think for themselves, and they've been very consistently making the same call over and over. They want to keep at it, and we should keep supporting them because it's their country and this is pretty much as righteous a cause as wars get.
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Although I do agree a lot with your line of thinking in a lot of ways, I think we need to start readjusting expectations in the not to distant future.
Normal people like us are not in the know as much as people in power of course but there are limitations.
The US President and NATO have indicated they are willing to support Ukraine as long as it takes, but privately we know that really isn't the case. They haven't provided Ukraine with enough of equipment and the equipment they have provided, not in sufficient quantities. Is there a strong enough will for western support for years to come? Doubtful.
Politically in countries like Canada when we were at war in the middle east and we suffered hundreds and thousands of killed and wounded, it was a massive political problem for multiple US Presidents and Canadian Prime Ministers. In Putin's Russia, he's pretty stable for the most part. People were convinced that the sanctions on the Russian elite and powerful would force Putin to backtrack, I was one of them and I can safely say I was wrong.
I really do hope the Russian military collapses and Ukraine is able to get 100% of it's land back and that includes Crimea. This is starting to look a lot less likely to me. There was a mountain of delays and dithering on behalf of the west for a whole host of things, trying to straddle the line between support and outright battling Russia indirectly.
I am starting to think that the more likely scenario in next 6-12 months would be wait and see approach, hope for the best and than a subtle tap on Zelensky's shoulder telling him great job but it's over.
Unless the US and NATO provides Ukraine with a mass amount of weapons and aircraft that they need in order to drive every Russian and Russian soldier out, then I think it may be considered a loss. When Zelensky says that's the goal, that's the goal and the end point. Losing huge swath's of land, citizens, economic ruin and population flee and more can't be spun as a moral victory.
We will see what happens in the near future. Without the equipment and training that Ukraine has said it needs. Ukraine asked for 1000 tanks from the US and they got 300 globally.
Winston Churchill said in 1941 something along the lines of "Give us the tools and we will finish the job" I just hope that's what's going to happen in the end.