Quote:
Originally Posted by bax
Well 74% isn’t a guarantee.
Hutson is interesting because he had an insane freshman season in college as a defenseman scoring 48 points in 39 games. He produced more from the backend then Gaudreau did as a forward.
That kind of production is basically unheard for a defenseman hence why his star probability went from 53% to 74% from his draft year until now.
Bedard is sitting at 99%. For comparison sake:
Mackinnon: 54%
McDavid 99%
Crosby: 99%
Yakupov: 61%
Lafreniere: 61%
Hughes: 99%
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What does the Bader model currently rate Coronato?
I think that model could reduce a lot of the noise by taking size at a given age into account.
Hutson being 5'9" at 19 should reduce his rating a bit. Mackinnon being 6'" at 18 should have helped his. For example. But that would have also helped Lafreniere, and look how that is progressing...
I would normalize size similar to age for the given league. But reduce the effect at around 6' and possibly have an inverse effect above6'4". Basically enhance a rating if projected for NHL size, but if the kid is growing like a weed penalize the rating since that will affect development.
Is Hutson the next Adam Fox? Maybe. But Fox has two inches of height on him.