The sample size for Vlad as a very good player is getting significantly larger than the sample size of him as an elite player. He had an OPS+ of 134 last year and 120 this year which is definitely not in the top tier of players. I see him as struggling to handle the adjustments that teams have made to him. There are entire departments within teams who are there to find gaps in players’ approaches and Guerrero so much raw talent that, in the past, he hasn’t needed to adjust his approach/swing to adapt to the changes that the opponents have made. Is he capable of doing it? Hopefully…but it is taking a very long time. The Jays (particularly this year) also didn’t do him any favours in terms of putting a guy behind him to help get him good pitches. Chapman shouldn’t be hitting behind Vlad but there isn’t another option.
For the Jays to contend for the World Series, they need him to be a lot closer to the 167 OPS+ guy that he was in 2021. Stats from 2021 have an additional variable in that the team played a significant portion of their games in non-major league stadiums.
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