Quote:
Originally Posted by dissentowner
Yup, this is why I always say 1st rnd picks are overhyped, the majority of them don't become impact players.
|
I've really appreciated your inside hits the past season. Also I understand that sometimes what is reported shifts quickly and don't hold those that report what they heard at a point in time responsible for their accurately reported take not coming to fruition. Just wanted to say that upfront.
On to your comment I'd like to build on. When it comes to picks, prospects and players, they should all fit on a risk / return frontier in my opinion.
Risk being measured as probability of success. Return being their likelihood of fulfilling their positional role with AAV accounted for.
E.g.: Kadri would be an AAV of $7m and a 99% COS of being a 2nd line center with 50pts. A 2nd round draft pick would be a 20% COS of being a 2nd line center scoring 50pts, but would only cost $895k.
$/pt Kadri = $140k; $/pt 2nd Rounder = $18k
Divide by the CoS
Risked Kadri = $141/pt; Risked 2nd Rounder = $90/pt
If a particular draft pick has less than a 13% chance of scoring those 50pts then they're even with Kadri's risk.
Now for years I assume that the Flames have some version of this ranking with age cohorts vs a model of what they need to win a Stanley Cup (e.g. Elite Dman, Elite Centre, Elite Goaltender, etc), but the more I hear from the inside the more I have my doubts.