[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

While Quito Maggi is predicting the NDP to win in a nail-biter, EKOS is predicting the UCP will wind up ahead and win a majority on the strength of a 6% lead in the Calgary CMA:

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.p...ce-in-alberta/

Both agree it will be very close. And at least EKOS is showing its work, so there’s that. I haven’t seen what Maggi’s looking at other than the Mainstreet tracker (which still shows the UCP ahead, albeit narrowly.

New Abacus poll will be out after the weekend apparently.

This is interesting, but not surprising:

The EKOS “disinformation index” also shows a stark divide in the electorate. The index clearly shows a correlation between disinformation and party support, with the most informed voters (i.e., those who score 0 on the disinformation index) being more likely to back the NDP, while the least informed voters are much more likely to support the UCP. Among the most informed voters, the NDP leads 84.0% to 14.9%, while among the least informed (those who scored a five or higher on the index), the UCP leads 87.6% to 10.4%. Among the indicators that are used to construct the index, belief that greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change is the biggest driver in this disinformation polarization. Nearly nine-in-ten (87.8%) NDP supporters believe greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change, while just one-third (35.2%) of UCP voters do.