[Bagor]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

Early returns are mail in ballots which we know sway toward the democrats.

The Guardian is suggesting the opposite. ie Mail ins are generally later.

Vote totals are likely to shift throughout the evening as well as in the days that follow election day as votes continue to be counted. That shift isn’t unusual and can be explained by two dynamics, said Charles Stewart III, a political science professor at MIT who specializes in election administration.

First, he said, the places that report their votes first tend to be smaller, Republican jurisdictions. Second, many places report their in-person election day vote first and their mail-in absentee vote later. Those votes tend to skew towards Democrats.

"Larger jurisdictions also tend to be more Democratic. Therefore tend to have more absentee and mail ballots. You’re getting both of these dynamics pushing in the same way, which then leads to what appears to be this big rush of Democratic ballots counted at the end,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ming-deadlines