Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
I'm not spinning anything. This is basic statistics. Nine-tenths of the champions come from a group that inclludes nine-tenths of the teams… which is exactly what you would expect if the group is chosen completely at random. The data give no reason to reject the null hypothesis.
Deliberately destroying the team for a hope of maybe picking top 3 gives you worse odds than that.
There isn't any plan that will work. The Calgary Flames exist to make up the numbers in the league. They're a small-market team on the wrong side of the 49th parallel. There is no recipe that will guarantee the Stanley Cup to any team in any time frame, but the odds against it are longer for the Flames than for almost anyone else.
You can, if you wish, ‘cut your losses’ by changing to a philosophy that will make the team worse than mediocre for years to come. There isn't any philosophy that will overcome the odds and make the team consistently better than average. If there were, every team would adopt it and the advantage woud be gone.
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See I think the rebuild is precisely the philosophy that gives the best chance of ending this never-ending loop of mediocrity, it's just one that this franchise has lacked the patience to fully see through. It's unprecedented that in our franchise's history we've not had a top 3 draft pick. You can't plan for it on any one given year, but properly bottoming out for a few seasons, especially when there's no foreseeable path to championship-level talent otherwise, I don't know how you feasibly acquire it. I guess I don't buy the defeatist view that our fate is to just exist as a north of the 49th parallel, 'make up the numbers in the league' franchise.
Why is Edmonton not doomed to this same fate? Just because they had some lottery balls bounce their way and we're the unlucky neighbor to the south?
You can't plan to have Edmonton's historic lottery luck, but I am a firm believer you build with top-level talent and that's done through the draft. There's not a foreseeable path to this roster as constructed becoming a cup contender, and that's enough reason for me to say enough's enough, it's time to reset and give ourselves a chance to take another crack at building a championship roster through a rebuild.