Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Fan, Ph.D.
Not only are you not reading what Jay Random is writing, relying on high draft picks is the epitome of relying on luck. You have to rely on the luck that your ball will be pulled out of a tumbler, with the best odds of getting #1 being around 25%. And then you're relying on more luck that the year you get that high pick is more like 2015 and less like 2012.
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That is a strawman.
The higher you draft, the more options you have.
Even if you lose the lottery, the draft order is still determined by inverse record.
The Flames arguably have a better amateur scouting history relative to their draft position than the Avs over the last decade or so. They HAVE found steals in later rounds... star level talents like Gaudreau, Mangiapane, Kylington, Andersson, Brodie, Giordano... this is high praise of their drafting.
But they don't have the better absolute draft history for the simple reason that the Avs picked in the top ten of the first round multiple years.
In 2009 - Duchene vs [no pick, traded for Jokinen]
In 2011 - Landeskog vs Baertschi
In 2013 - MacKinnon vs Monahan
In 2015 - Rantanen vs [no pick, traded for Hamilton]
In 2017 - Makar vs Valimaki
In 2018 - Bowen Byram vs [no pick, traded for Hamonic]
In the above list, the Avs indeed made the playoffs in 2018. But you'll recall that pick was the return on the Matt Duchene trade.
We have never given Tod Button six top ten picks in a nine year span.