Quote:
Originally Posted by Pointman
Based on known demands, this is how it could move forward
Territory.
West demands:
Return Donbass to Ukraine
Return Crimea to Ukraine
Russia demands:
Keep Crimea
Solution:
Return Donbass to Ukraine. Putin doesn't seem to want it any bad. He didn't recognize them for 8 years. He didn't include them in his demands.
Let Russia keep Crimea and move the hell on
Military.
West demands:
Guarantees of Ukraine safety
Ukraine as a member of NATO
Russia demands:
Guarantees of Russian safety
No Ukraine in NATO
Solution:
Make a USA-Ukraine defensive deal, similar to USA-Isreal one. Send in UN peace keepers if necessary. Build defensive infrastructure. A side deal can be worked out where Russia pays a huge sum for Ukraine defense in return for dropping sanctions. Build a Maginot line if you wish. Let Russians inspect military bases so they are sure it is defensive. Don't let Russia keep troops near Ukrainian border except for border control services. Do not make Ukraine a NATO member.
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If NATO was a threat, Putin wouldn't be attacking Ukraine. In your suggestion, Putin just gives up Donbass in exchange for essentially nothing but the official admission from Ukraine that yes, we lost Crimea.
If what you suggest would be something Putin was willing to consider, he would have started this by offering Donbass in exchange for safety guarantees and official recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, because that would have been a lot cheaper and wouldn't have resulted in international shame for Russia plus economic sanctions.
It's just obvious that what you're suggesting is not on the table from Putins side, not unless there's an actual threat he couldn't solve by just attacking pre-emptively.
(It's also somewhat questionable whether Putin is even able to hand over Donbass. Those troops might be pro-Russian, but they're not likely to put down those arms and just give up on their independence if Putin would abandon them.)
Quote:
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Sure Ukraine has a right to defend itself. And the west has a right to step in and help. I just don't want this whole situation to go that route. I want peace, not bigger war. My country and I personally may and probably will suffer from sanctions at best. I don't even want to think about the worst. I may get a call to join army if it comes to that. I don't just sit on a couch theorizing about this war.
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Here's why what you're doing is making excuses for war;
The whole reason Putin is doing what he's doing in Ukraine is that he doesn't believe it will lead to a major war. This should be fairly obvious no? Putin is not crazy, he knows a major war would be an uncontrollable beast and in no way in his interest.
This whole thing that he's doing in Ukraine is based on the idea that the Russian troops around Ukraine don't think that what they're doing will start something that could turn into a third world war. There might be a lot of patriots in that group, but nobody goes to war thinking that it might burn the whole world.
He also needs Russian civilians to quietly just accept that he's doing this, for them to keep paying their taxes and keep going to work everyday. He doesn't need for anyone to agree with him (that's why he's a dictator), he only needs for people to accept that letting him do what he wants is generally the safest choice for everyone, for example for you.
Yes, it's very human for you to think that "well there's nothing I can do about Putin so the only thing I can hope for is that all the people in other countries are just going to let Putin do what he wants", but until you accept that this is not a reasonable position, you are only giving Putin the excuse he needs.
The excuse he needs is the hope that nothing bad might not come from what he's doing.
The reality is however, that Putin is already gambling with your life, right now. It's a really unlikely that the west will just let itself be humiliated without a response, just as it's very unlikely that Putin might be appeased with something like you're suggesting.
While I think it's unlikely that there will be a major war now when the west is completely unprepared for it, Putin is currently sowing the seeds for a much larger conflict, and the way out off that path is not hope that maybe there won't be a retaliation.
NATO might be essentially non-functional right now, but that's largely because nations in the west have thought that NATO isn't really needed, that there are more important matters such as UK/EU trade etc. However, the popularity of NATO has just absolutely skyrocketed in Finland, and I'm guessing the same is happening in most of Europe.
Even if Putin gets what he wants right now (which currently seems likely but the future IS hard to predict), he has just given a massive boost towards re-militarizing Europe and made it obvious to everyone west of Russia that Russia is an enemy to me and mine, that there is nothing else we can do than strengthen our military and cut our ties to Russia even further... the ties that have been a large factor in guaranteeing peace.
What you're saying is that you hope we don't respond to what Putin is doing, so you don't end up getting called to fight with, for example, me. That's both extremely human and extremely unreasonable, and the impression I'm getting from you is that you would do it. You would take up arms for Putins Russia if you were told and come to the Finnish border to shoot at me and mine, or Americans or Ukrainians or whoever happen to be on the other side.
That's why this is happening. People in Russia thinking, hoping, that what Putin is doing is maybe just fine.
However, from our point of view, Putin just made it obvious that the only way to stop his aggression and ambition is by preparing for a major war with Russia, and while that preparation might bring peace, it's an extremely dangerous gamble, because those preparations can just as easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I need to support my country building up it's military so that if you come across the border, I have as much support as I can possibly have.
A much less dangerous way to stop this current development is that you in Russia make it clear that his action is unpopular, that there isn't support for his aggression, that YOU don't accept his grievances as legitimate, that you are will not quietly just accept that he's gambling with your life.
It might not be pretty, but the number of people that could get hurt in demonstrations is a lot less that have already been hurt in Ukraine.
Only Russians can de-escalate what Russians have escalated.
Please stop just hoping for the best, it's dangerous for me and mine. Putin might miscalculate what he can get away with, and the world might blow up because of it.
EDIT:
You have the luxury of hoping that maybe giving in to Putin now would actually be helpful. You can hope that maybe he speaks the truth.
It would however be absolutely insane for anyone this side of Russia to hang anything on the hope that maybe Putin can be appeased or maybe he's speaking the truth.
We have to now respond to the possibility that maybe he can't be appeased, no matter how this particular conflict ends.