Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducay
I mean, pretty sure the writing was on the wall for this one months ago when a few tank battalions and over 150,000 personnel got stationed on the border.
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I'm not convinced the numbers are 150,000 or even close. Not now and not "months ago". However, the situation is trending negatively and the number of personnel has the potential to increase.
Russian Troop Disposition
1. Russia has permanent garrisons in Voronezh, Kolomna, Valyuki, Smolensk, Novocherkassk, Volgograd, Korenovsk, Persianovskiy, and Crimea. Aside from Crimea, these units are not stationed "on the border".
2. Units that have moved/deployed to "near Ukraine" are in Pogonovo, Yelnya, Postoyalye Dvory (Kursk), Crimea, Rozhny, Krasnodor and Klimovo.
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Now, the numbers.
As of a few days ago, the best guess at Russian BTGs "near the Ukraine border" number about 54. A BTG is a combined arms formation, so think a mix of armour, infantry, artillery and engineers. BTGs are tailored to the task they will undertake, so not all 54 will have the same composition. Each BTG numbers between 600 and 1000 personnel. If we lean to the high side, the total personnel is 54,000. Let's call it 60,000. However - and this is key - only skeleton crews are with the BTGs (para 2, above) that have moved into the operational area. That is, Russia has deployed the heavy metal but the troops are back in their home garrisons.
The actual number is not more than 60,000 in my opinion and probably less than 50,000. If you add the Donbass dudes, you're getting close to 90,000.
Interestingly, and since the beginning of January, Russia began moving approximately 7-10 BTGs from the Eastern Military District. Where they eventually end up is anyone's guess. Belarus perhaps. However, like above, only equipment is moving, not the troops. Still, as Russia showed with its recent deployment to Kazakhstan, they have an impressive airlift capability.