Originally Posted by united
This is a poor way of analyzing things because it presumes all draft picks hold equal value. By this methodology, trading the 1st overall pick for the 200th overall pick would be breakeven. Conducting the analysis with a draft pick value measure is the appropriate method.
Using the draft value chart published by The Athletic in 2020, here is what I quickly got using draft capital only:
2022 draft
In: 2nd (FLA - TBD), 3rd (TML - TBD)
Out: 4th (CGY - TBD), 6th (CGY - TBD)
Value: Estimated +2 wins
2021 draft
In: 84
Out: 109
Value: +0.3 wins
2020 draft
In: 22, 24, 72, 80, 96
Out: 19, 22, 81, 112
Value: +0.3 wins
2019 draft
In: 116, 214
Out: 57, 119, 181, 212
Value: -1.5 wins
2018 draft
In: 108, 122
Out: 12, 43, 74, 136
Value: -7.8 wins
2017 draft
In: ...
Out: 47, 78
Value: -2.4 wins
2016 draft
In: 54, 56, 166
Out: 35
Value: +0.5 wins
2015 draft
In: 52, 53, 60, 83
Out: 15, 45, 52, 76, 83
Value: -4.9 wins
Total: -15.5 wins
2018-2020: -9.0 wins
- Since Treliving took charge, the Flames have a net deficit of a poor 1st-/great 2nd-overall pick .
- Over the past three completed drafts, the Flames have a net deficit of a 4th-overall pick.
- Considering the playoffs success the team has achieved, that is depressing.
Any contention the Flames are net positive or breakeven is disingenuous or naive, especially when considering the team's performance over that time.
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