Quote:
Originally Posted by GranteedEV
There's some obvious merit to the idea that Giordano's age-related decline has impacted the team's success this year.
But if we're talking about the past few years in general?
No, the Flames' lack of success is an outlier relative to their puck possession metrics.
From 2017 to 2019, the Flames posted a CF% of 52.65%, which was good for fifth best in the NHL over that time. Nine teams total posted a shot attempt % of 51.50% or greater. Of these teams:
- The Boston Bruins were in the 2019 Stanley Cup Final
- The Carolina Hurricanes were in the 2019 Eastern Conference Final after a coaching change (removing the coach Calgary added, ironically)
- The Vegas Golden Knights were in the 2018 Stanley Cup Final
- The San Jose Sharks were in the 2018 Western Conference Finals
- The Calgary Flames won one out of nine postseason games played
- The Nashville Predators were in the 2017 Stanley Cup Final
- The Tampa Bay Lightning were in the 2018 Eastern Conference Final and also happen to be the 2020 Stanley Cup champions
- The St. Louis Blues were the 2019 Stanley Cup Champion
- The Montreal Canadiens were a clear outlier, making the playoffs once, and missing once with 96 pts (which would have made the playoffs in the West, BTW)
If you're making the argument that the Canadiens and Flames had comparable rosters over this 3-year span, then I'm open to debate.
If you agree that the Flames' roster was more skilled over that period than the Canadiens, then you would need to admit that the Flames underperformed relative to each of the seven other teams to post similarly strong puck possession metrics.
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Ok, so you’ve demonstrated that this team is good at out shooting other teams. That’s great. But that doesn’t mean that they can capitalize or execute to the same degree as the other teams you’ve mentioned. It also doesn’t explain some of the struggles this organization has had in regards to its goaltending over the timeline you listed.
I mean, the objective of hockey is pretty simple no? Just outscore your opponent. Done, you win. But when you’re struggling to score at times and your goaltenders are having trouble making saves the other times, I don’t know how much I like your chances of winning.
The problem I see in terms of the Flames’ struggles to score is that they seem to need a lot of chances just to bury the occasional goal. They also miss the net too much for my liking and they’re also wildly inconsistent to boot.
They were absolutely dreadful in 17-18, one of the worst in the league. Then the next season they were one of the best. Both seasons were probably outliers though, they weren’t as bad as their ranking suggested in 17-18 and they weren’t as good as their ranking suggested in 18-19. Maybe somewhere in the middle is fair?
Similar situation in the 19-20 season, started off as one of the worst scoring teams in the NHL, then caught absolute fire down the stretch scoring roughly 4 goals per game and looked like one of the top goal scoring teams to finish the season. Once again, probably somewhere in the middle.
In terms of their goals allowed category, they’re a little more consistent then the goal scoring department, but their their rankings of 17th, 17th, 9th, 18th and 14th would also indicate that they’re smack dab in the middle.
The pattern displayed here is that this team is as Jekyll and Hyde as their record, coaching history and period to period consistency would indicate. World beaters at times, complete trash the other times. The actual reasons for this seem to be many, but make no mistake, the elite teams of this league generally do not exhibit the Flames’ current patterns.
I think 4-5 years is a large enough sample size to determine what this team is and what they’re not don’t you think? To me, they’re not an elite team, they’re in the middle, just like their record and level of success would indicate; at least in terms of what actually determines the outcomes of hockey games. If this team looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, then they’re likely a duck. The Calgary Flames are a duck (middle).