Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
Yeah, I'm on the PA website and I'm way less confident. There are about 760,000 mail ballots outstanding. However, only 165,000 of those are in Philadelphia or Allegheny.
There are 77,000 in York county (Trump +25 on Election Day), 10,000 in Crawford (Trump +59), 12,000 in Mercer (Trump +42), 4000+ in Greene (Trump +65), 4500 in Tioga (Trump +66), 5000+ in Armstrong (Trump +64), and 5000 in Carbon (Trump +46), among other places.
So assuming that the remaining mail-in ballots to be counted will be heavily (60+%) Biden so as to erase the current lead seems... unlikely.
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Yeah, just doing the math based on those remaining numbers and the existing vote spread in each county, it looks like Biden would need to outperform the existing spreads by about 25 points (so if he's down 10 points in a county, he'd need to be up 15 in mail-in votes, of if he's up 20 he'd need to be up 45 with mail-in votes) to make up the difference. Maybe that'll happen? But it seems pretty optimistic.