Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Huge polling miss for Wisconsin.
The 538 average was 8.3% and ended with a sub 1% win.
That makes Pennsylvania more interesting. Michigan by 8% and Nevada by 6% are also in the sub 1% range. It will be interesting to see final overall numbers.
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Yeah, somehow in some places the polls are actually
more wrong than in 2016. Obviously these numbers can change as the last few ballots are counted, but as of right now here's the margin between Trump's 538 estimate vs the election results:
Florida 2016: Trump +1.8
Florida 2020: Trump +5.9
Wisconsin 2016: Trump +6.1
Wisconsin 2020: Trump +7.6
Michigan 2016: Trump +4.2
Michigan 2020: Trump +7.4
Ohio 2016: Trump +6.2
Ohio 2020: Trump +7.6
Now chances are some of those 2020 margins will narrow with more mail-in ballots counted, but still it doesn't look great for pollsters.