Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - Potential Gaudreau trades: Rest of Eastern Conference Post#253

Calgary4LIfe · 09-11-2020, 02:55 PM

My inclination is that getting two mid-late round picks for Gaudreau is a disappointing return. Let's take a look at 5 or 6 drafts in a row to see what the 18th and 20th picks were, as well as for fun the 17th, 19th and 21st picks. My inclination is that they often are busts like Poirier and Klimchuk, or decent depth players like Jankowski, with the occasional high-end player mixed in. I do think it is very possible to 'hit' on players that would replace Gaudreau down the road, but would rarely surpass him. It does happen - after all, Gaudreau is indeed a 4th round pick himself, but it is a very rare occurrence to get a player that ends up being as good as Gaudreau even in the 2nd half of the 1st round. Let's see:

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2010:
17 Joey Hishon
18 Austin Watson
19 Nick Bjugstad
20 Beau Bennett
21 Riley Sheahan

Result? I wouldn't trade those 5 first round picks for Gaudreau.
==================================

2011
17 Nathan Beaulieu
18 Mark McNeill
19 Oscar Klefbom
20 Connor Murphy
21 Stefan Noesen

Result? Klefbom being the best player - arguably Beaulieu if you want, I won't argue. Both those players together for Johnny? Meh. All those 5 for Johnny? Still disappointed. Just the two actual picks? A bust and a dime a dozen defencemen. No thanks.
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2012:
17 Tomas Hertl
18 Teuvo Terravainen
19 Andrei Vasilveskly
20 Scott Laughton
21 Mark Jankowski

Result: The 2 picks are underwhelming to me. The 5 picks together? That's awesome. They at least are all players, so that's something positive, but obviously always a mixed bag.
==================================

2013:
17 Curtis Lazar
18 Mirco Mueller
19 Kyrby Rychel
20 Anthony Mantha
21Frederick Gauthier

Result: 2 picks are fantastic - I would do that trade for Gaudreau. But that's pretty scary - Bust - Great player - Bust - Great player - 4th line depth player. Still, that's a good trade straight up. It only gets negligibly better when you have all 5 first round picks, and that was considered a good draft too.
==================================

2014:
17 Travis Sanheim
18 Alex Tuch
19 Tony DeAngelo
20 Nick Schmaltz
21Robby Fabbri

Two picks are decent. I wouldn't love it, wouldn't hate it. I like Tuch a lot. Schmaltz is a decent player. All 5 picks together? For sure (ignoring DeAngelo's character), and it is a home-run. 5 players here, some top-pairing defencemen or forwards, and some decent depth. I would hate it if ended up becominmg Schmaltz-Fabbri as the two picks though, even though they are both players.
==================================

2015:
17 Kyle Connor
18 Thomas Chabot
19 Evgeny Svechnikov (the bust one)
20 Joel Ericksson Ek
21Colin White

Chabot and Ek? Yeah, I am down with this trade. Straight-up for Connor? I would do it. All 5 picks? Out of the park for Calgary.
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2016:
17 Dante Fabbro
18 Logan Stanley
19 Kieffer Bellows
20 Dennis Cholowski
21 Julien Gauthier

2 busts (probably - still young, but probable busts). All 5 picks? 3 underwhelming depth players. No thank you.
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I cut it off here, as you can't expect middle of the round-late first round picks to make it to the NHL right away. Even in this late stage, Stanley and Cholowski still have a shot at becoming NHL'ers, but IF they do, they probably won't become core players or even strong supplementary players, but rather cheap depth.

The results speak for themselves. Trading Gaudreau for NJ's 18th and 20th picks can be really good, can be just 'meh', or it can just be throwing Gaudreau away for nothing in return. It really is a mixed-bag as most of us were fully aware of before I decided to go through this. If you like to gamble, then this is a solid trade. I don't know if I would do this personally - I think there is too much risk, and you are MORE LIKELY to be disappointed in the return than not.

Let's do the same thing for the 7th overall pick straight-up (as this is sometimes discussed as well). For the hell of it, I will also do the same and include the pick before and the pick after.

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2010:
6 Brett Connoly
7 Jeff Skinner
8 Alexander Burmistrov

To be honest, Skinner is by far the best, and I guess at his best so far, it wouldn't be too terrible for the Flames, but all in all it would be very disappointing IMO. A better goal scorer, but worse at driving the play and making his teammates better. I wouldn't even think about doing it, and the other two players are depth and not much else.
==================================

2011:
6 Zibanejad
7 Scheifele
8 Couturier

Funny one. Up until recently, absolutely HELL NO to Zibanejad. Now I think I would. The other two are no-brainers to me, and Couturier has been discussed ad nauseam already.
==================================

2012:
6 Hampus Lindholm
7 Matt Dumba
8 Derrick Pouliot

Hmm.. tough one. I absolutely hated Dumba as a prospect. He seemed to have the IQ of a goldfish. However, he has really developed incredibly well on the Wild. Tempted, but I would want just a bit more for some reason. Pouliot would be terrible - a player I guess, but a terrible return. Lindholm would be an out of the park hit, however.
==================================

2013:
6 Monahan
7 Nurse
8 Ristolainen

Gaudreau for Nurse? Puke. A package of Monahan, Nurse and Ristolainen would be pretty good, however! Monahan or Gaudreau? That's a good question. Let's just call it a tie for the sake of argument on this board as there is already plenty of discussion of which one is more disappointing than the other. However, Nurse + Ristolainen isn't very great. Two very big, rugged defencemen that can skate decently... but have the combined IQ of a pet rock. No thanks.
==================================

2014:
6 Virtanen
7 Fleury
8 Nylander

I wouldn't trade Gaudreau for all 3 combined. I like Nylander, but he is definitely not as good as Gaudreau, and it isn't even close IMO. Virtanen is a bust that won't be qualified by Vancouver and is a depth player. Fleury has never lived up to his hype. Again, I don't think I would trade Gaudreau for a package of these 3 players.
==================================

2015:
6 Zacha
7 Provorov
8 Werenski

I wouldn't do Zacha for Gaudreau straight up, but I would Provorov or Werenski.
==================================

2016:
6 Tkachuk
7 Keller
8 Nylander

Tkachuk is a no-brainer, but Keller? Definitely not as good and will probably never be as good. Alex Nylander? No thanks. That's awful.

A better bag most assuredly, but still a bit mixed too, which is a surprise to no one. This is why trading Gaudreau carries so much risk. You can still draft a dud at 7th quite easily, or just a depth guy, but sometimes you do get a star. Gaudreau is a star. I think it might be easier to ADD to him and the team overall than to try and find a better player(s) in the draft.

However, if the Flames sell, this would be a good year to sell as this is a deeper draft, and it increases your chances of finding good players at 18 and 20 (as well as from other trades of course).

09-11-2020, 02:55 PM	#100
Calgary4LIfe Franchise Player Join Date: Jun 2010 Exp:	My inclination is that getting two mid-late round picks for Gaudreau is a disappointing return. Let's take a look at 5 or 6 drafts in a row to see what the 18th and 20th picks were, as well as for fun the 17th, 19th and 21st picks. My inclination is that they often are busts like Poirier and Klimchuk, or decent depth players like Jankowski, with the occasional high-end player mixed in. I do think it is very possible to 'hit' on players that would replace Gaudreau down the road, but would rarely surpass him. It does happen - after all, Gaudreau is indeed a 4th round pick himself, but it is a very rare occurrence to get a player that ends up being as good as Gaudreau even in the 2nd half of the 1st round. Let's see: ================================== 2010: 17 Joey Hishon 18 Austin Watson 19 Nick Bjugstad 20 Beau Bennett 21 Riley Sheahan Result? I wouldn't trade those 5 first round picks for Gaudreau. ================================== 2011 17 Nathan Beaulieu 18 Mark McNeill 19 Oscar Klefbom 20 Connor Murphy 21 Stefan Noesen Result? Klefbom being the best player - arguably Beaulieu if you want, I won't argue. Both those players together for Johnny? Meh. All those 5 for Johnny? Still disappointed. Just the two actual picks? A bust and a dime a dozen defencemen. No thanks. ================================== 2012: 17 Tomas Hertl 18 Teuvo Terravainen 19 Andrei Vasilveskly 20 Scott Laughton 21 Mark Jankowski Result: The 2 picks are underwhelming to me. The 5 picks together? That's awesome. They at least are all players, so that's something positive, but obviously always a mixed bag. ================================== 2013: 17 Curtis Lazar 18 Mirco Mueller 19 Kyrby Rychel 20 Anthony Mantha 21Frederick Gauthier Result: 2 picks are fantastic - I would do that trade for Gaudreau. But that's pretty scary - Bust - Great player - Bust - Great player - 4th line depth player. Still, that's a good trade straight up. It only gets negligibly better when you have all 5 first round picks, and that was considered a good draft too. ================================== 2014: 17 Travis Sanheim 18 Alex Tuch 19 Tony DeAngelo 20 Nick Schmaltz 21Robby Fabbri Two picks are decent. I wouldn't love it, wouldn't hate it. I like Tuch a lot. Schmaltz is a decent player. All 5 picks together? For sure (ignoring DeAngelo's character), and it is a home-run. 5 players here, some top-pairing defencemen or forwards, and some decent depth. I would hate it if ended up becominmg Schmaltz-Fabbri as the two picks though, even though they are both players. ================================== 2015: 17 Kyle Connor 18 Thomas Chabot 19 Evgeny Svechnikov (the bust one) 20 Joel Ericksson Ek 21Colin White Chabot and Ek? Yeah, I am down with this trade. Straight-up for Connor? I would do it. All 5 picks? Out of the park for Calgary. ================================== 2016: 17 Dante Fabbro 18 Logan Stanley 19 Kieffer Bellows 20 Dennis Cholowski 21 Julien Gauthier 2 busts (probably - still young, but probable busts). All 5 picks? 3 underwhelming depth players. No thank you. ================================== I cut it off here, as you can't expect middle of the round-late first round picks to make it to the NHL right away. Even in this late stage, Stanley and Cholowski still have a shot at becoming NHL'ers, but IF they do, they probably won't become core players or even strong supplementary players, but rather cheap depth. The results speak for themselves. Trading Gaudreau for NJ's 18th and 20th picks can be really good, can be just 'meh', or it can just be throwing Gaudreau away for nothing in return. It really is a mixed-bag as most of us were fully aware of before I decided to go through this. If you like to gamble, then this is a solid trade. I don't know if I would do this personally - I think there is too much risk, and you are MORE LIKELY to be disappointed in the return than not. Let's do the same thing for the 7th overall pick straight-up (as this is sometimes discussed as well). For the hell of it, I will also do the same and include the pick before and the pick after. ================================== 2010: 6 Brett Connoly 7 Jeff Skinner 8 Alexander Burmistrov To be honest, Skinner is by far the best, and I guess at his best so far, it wouldn't be too terrible for the Flames, but all in all it would be very disappointing IMO. A better goal scorer, but worse at driving the play and making his teammates better. I wouldn't even think about doing it, and the other two players are depth and not much else. ================================== 2011: 6 Zibanejad 7 Scheifele 8 Couturier Funny one. Up until recently, absolutely HELL NO to Zibanejad. Now I think I would. The other two are no-brainers to me, and Couturier has been discussed ad nauseam already. ================================== 2012: 6 Hampus Lindholm 7 Matt Dumba 8 Derrick Pouliot Hmm.. tough one. I absolutely hated Dumba as a prospect. He seemed to have the IQ of a goldfish. However, he has really developed incredibly well on the Wild. Tempted, but I would want just a bit more for some reason. Pouliot would be terrible - a player I guess, but a terrible return. Lindholm would be an out of the park hit, however. ================================== 2013: 6 Monahan 7 Nurse 8 Ristolainen Gaudreau for Nurse? Puke. A package of Monahan, Nurse and Ristolainen would be pretty good, however! Monahan or Gaudreau? That's a good question. Let's just call it a tie for the sake of argument on this board as there is already plenty of discussion of which one is more disappointing than the other. However, Nurse + Ristolainen isn't very great. Two very big, rugged defencemen that can skate decently... but have the combined IQ of a pet rock. No thanks. ================================== 2014: 6 Virtanen 7 Fleury 8 Nylander I wouldn't trade Gaudreau for all 3 combined. I like Nylander, but he is definitely not as good as Gaudreau, and it isn't even close IMO. Virtanen is a bust that won't be qualified by Vancouver and is a depth player. Fleury has never lived up to his hype. Again, I don't think I would trade Gaudreau for a package of these 3 players. ================================== 2015: 6 Zacha 7 Provorov 8 Werenski I wouldn't do Zacha for Gaudreau straight up, but I would Provorov or Werenski. ================================== 2016: 6 Tkachuk 7 Keller 8 Nylander Tkachuk is a no-brainer, but Keller? Definitely not as good and will probably never be as good. Alex Nylander? No thanks. That's awful. A better bag most assuredly, but still a bit mixed too, which is a surprise to no one. This is why trading Gaudreau carries so much risk. You can still draft a dud at 7th quite easily, or just a depth guy, but sometimes you do get a star. Gaudreau is a star. I think it might be easier to ADD to him and the team overall than to try and find a better player(s) in the draft. However, if the Flames sell, this would be a good year to sell as this is a deeper draft, and it increases your chances of finding good players at 18 and 20 (as well as from other trades of course).