Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
Before people freak out, this is more of a comment on strategy than it is on Biden. I really do not understand why Democrats continue to chase the mythical "moderate Republican" vote they seem to think exists and is just their for the taking. The strategy has been producing diminishing returns for almost two decades now.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1298267744865902601 |
Just to explain something that I think is lost in the discussion. The problem with the assumptions being made is that the party lines have remained stagnant. They haven't. I believe most are going off the 2004 standard that had the Republican Party holding close to a 42% chunk of registered voters. That segment does not exist anymore. The Republican Party has experienced a significant period of shrinkage since then.
From 2016-2017 there was a 5%
change in Republican voter identification, dropping from 42% to 37%, while the Democrat identification held firm at 44%, providing a seven point advantage.
Gallup says that gap has continued to widen in 2020 and is now an 11 point gap.
While Trump has ridiculous support from his identified base, that base has shrunk because of people no longer identifying with the party. So even though he went from having 93% support to 95% support of Republicans, the fact that the Republican slice has shrunk 7-11% says he's lost voters not gained any. If you do the math, the GOP has lost ground in the base, let alone the messaging that impacts voter support. That 10 point gap makes sense based on the larger data supporting the shifting party identification in the US.
If you really want to turn that tweet on its head, you can easily say that Trump has a problem with Democrats. He only has 3% support from Democrats.