Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
Pretty unlikley. Basically, if they flip Arizona, and lose Alabama, as is expected will happen, they're at 47 seats. Then you have three "unknowns" - Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. Democrats need to win all 3 toss-ups to get to 50, and also need to defend Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico. If they don't go 6 for 6, they'll need to somehow flip one or more of Kansas, Georgia or Iowa. And of course, they then need to take the White House to get the tiebreaker.
It's not impossible, but a lot has to fall their way.
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I will be shocked if the democrats don't win Colorado by a good margin.
Also add Iowa and Montana to your toss up list. They are up in recent polls in Iowa, Maine, North Carolina. Well within the margin of error, but they've got a better path than you've lined up.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...enate_map.html
Rcp has it 48 48 with 4 toss ups. If your side wins the presidency you need to win 2 of the toss ups, if you lose you need 3.