[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

IMO it's a pretty tough one to predict. I'm not sure that many teams will be tripping over themselves to overpay Hall...at least not for 7 years (of course it only ever takes the perception of 2 teams to drive the price up).

Hall is the same age as Panarin (allegedly), signing one year later. 6 months older than Stone.

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of GMs view age 26 and 27 differently than 28 or 29. Only 5 guys have signed age 28 or later for > 8.5M: Karlsson, Doughty, Price, Kopitar, Bobrovsky (all five were actually 10M+, only Bob changed teams). Bobby Ryan, JVR, and Pacioretty (4x7, signed a year early and taking effect as he turned 31) are the highest paid wingers (7-7.25).

Even going back to age 26-27 guys, there aren't many comps (pure wingers). Panarin, P Kane, Stone, Kucherov, Benn, Skinner, Parise, E Kane.

So the only wingers who have changed teams as UFAs are Panarin, JVR, and Parise (old rules)...

If history is any indication, Hall will end up signing a bad deal (for them) with the Yotes due to sunk cost fallacy.

Many of the contracts you are trying to compare to were signed years ago when the cap was quite different. Thus the comparisons fail.

I believe last summer is the best predictor since the cap number will be closest. I’d expect Hall as a premiere UFA this summer to get 10+ million just like Panarin and Bob.