Quote:
Originally Posted by Joborule
I asked this in the PGT for the last game, but will ask here. Which other teams in the NHL have more top 6 players than the Flames? What makes each of those players top 6? Flames have 4 out of six I think we would agree. So there's two on the top line that don't fit the bill, but is that really the case? Do other teams that make the playoffs each have 6 players that qualify as top 6?
I feel that we may be overblowing the notion of not having two other players to make the team scoring lines more complete. I feel that the only teams that feature 5 or 6 players that are considered 'top 6' by CP's criteria are extremely stack. Granted, it is something that should be attained still, but may be unrealistic in this salary cap landscape.
Flames have the ability to spread out 4 top tier talents amongst two lines. They can form combinations that have them as pairs between the two lines, with a fill in player to complete the lines, or overload the top line with three of them (which they are doing), and put all the onus on one player to carry the two others on the line.
I think what teams typically have when they have two scoring lines, is two strong centres that are running their lines. With splitting Lindholm and Monahan up so they can be the centre for their own lines, Flames have ideally two good centres to run their lines. If Monahan could get his head out of his ass, and start making #### happen again, that could be the difference of having two effective scoring lines then. Because the roster does have players that could play along with Monahan and be positive contributors. They can be your Ferland's and Glencross's whereas on their own they aren't gonna make a difference, but with linemate(s) that can dictate play, can light up the lamp.
So I don't feel the issue with the Flames is not having another top 6 player to bring the number up to 5 on the team. I think it's moreso that the top players aren't preform as they're expected to anymore aside from Lindholm.
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So there are two factors here:
1) is the top end quality of the players by position
2) Is the drop off between the top end and the next tier.
For part #2, a huge problem with the Top 6 this year is that the drop off from Tkachuk to guys #5 and especially #6 is huge. Many teams may not have a 6 bonafide 'top 6' guys in their lineup, but their #6 guy is either a tremendous chemistry fit that boosts the sum of the line, OR, is a bonafide top tier 3rd line player in their own right.
Calgary
had this scenario 2 years ago with Frolik. While Frolik was a 3rd line guy, his chemistry with Backlund and Tkachuk elevated his play to be greater than the sum of that line's parts.
However, because of the age related decline of Backlund and Frolik, Frolik is no longer able to bridge that gap with chemistry and is no longer a top tier 3rd liner. The rest of the options being tried in that spot are 4th liners, and so the drop off between Tkachuk (a first line quality player) and his linemates is significant. There aren't many contending teams that have a 4th line quality player playing on their 2nd line.
For me, however, you could still passably have that scenario were it not for the problems with criteria #1.
Neither Monahan nor Backlund are upper tier with respect to their slot in the lineup.
Contending teams have excellent 1-2 punches down the middle, while the Flames have one of the weaker 1-2 punches among the top 3rd in the league.
Every year you see some top line centre dominate or some 2nd line centre emerge to dominate.
Monahan just isn't on the level of a kopitar/toews/cros/malkin/ROR/Bergeron. Depending on the team makeup, you could work with that, for example if the Flames had a monahan clone on the 2nd line as well, you can work with that. However, an underwhelming centre on line 1 then gives way to an underwhelming centre on line 2. Backlund just isn't on the same tier as a David Krejci or a Paul Statsny or a Brayden Schenn or a prime Jeff Carter or a Kuznetsov or a prime Andy McDonald etc etc.
The Flames are arguably weakest at the most important position, and that's not going to translate to sustained wins. It's certainly not intimidating any other contenders out there. Neither player is so good as to substantially elevate inadequate linemates, and so the lack of a 2nd line RW is devastating to both players when they play in that second line spot.
Look at Colorado as an example. They ran through Calgary because their top line centre was one of the best players in the league during the first round of the playoffs.
Backlund finished 5th in icetime on the flames forwards last year playing 17:54 a night. Soderberg finished 5th on the Avs in icetime last year playing 17:27 a night. Soderberg ended up with 2 more goals and 2 more points than Backlund.
So while the Avs top line and the Flames top line were on par with each other from a points production standpoint, the Avs point production critically came down the middle whereas the Flames came from the wing. And while the Avs didn't have a second line player like Tkachuk, they had 2 other centres besides MacKinnon capable of 40-50 points.
Ultimately their second line was a weakness in the next round however, so they have improved it this year with Kadri.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flash Walken
Here's the top 2 centre scoring totals for the last handful of cup champs.
2018 Caps: 160 pts
2017 Pens: 161 pts
2016 Pens: 143 pts (Malkin missed 25 games)
2015 Hawks: 103 pts (Jennings trophy)
2014 Kings: 126 pts (Jennings trophy)
2013 Hawks: 116 pt pace (lockout half season / Jennings trophy)
2012 Kings: 120 pts (add Jeff Carter at deadline)
You ain't going to win the cup unless you've either got two 75-85 point centres or the stingiest team defense in the entire league.
The Flames have neither.
Suggests to me the course of action is acquire one of the best centres in the league, because I don't think you're ever going to have the stingiest team defense with a roster containing both gaudreau and monahan. I just don't think it's possible.
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In the second half of the regular season, the St. Louis Blues i believe had the best goals against in the entire league. Jennings quality team defense, a great 1-2 centre punch and perhaps the best 3 zone centre in the entire league that year. And they won the cup.