Quote:
Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen
Gaudreau "improving defensively," but his offense taking a much much bigger hit isn't Neal making his teammate better, it's the opposite. Gaudreau had better shots-for:shots-against ratio without Neal, that's not at all a positive impact. It's why away from Neal he's much closer to that grey line.
And again, we're looking at very limited numbers. It's too small of sample size when you're comparing players who played 8% of their 5v5 time with Neal and trying to suggest much of anything.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monahammer
I think this is a variation of Chicken and egg though- If neal (even in LV) was only able to put up numbers due to some productive linemates, then it could be possible that a better player put in that same position would actually yield better overall results for the team. Just because one player succeeds more when put into a specific position does not mean that the whole team is performing better, I would posit that it likely means that the whole team has become slightly worse than it could be in order to elevate that one player.
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Yes, sample size is important. And I'm hardly trying to suggest anything definitive. It's food for thought, and in an offseason where the Flames have largely remained stagnant, it is important to examine all of the lineup possibilities for next season.
The Flames have $5.8 million committed to this player and it's folly to write him off as unsalvageable when his negative impacts are easily offset. Gaudreau is reduced offensively by Neal but his defensive impacts improve. Tkachuk is much the same. Both players remain in a very good place analytically in their short samples with Neal.
Nobody is advocating for sticking with pairings that clearly don't work. But, as you say, the sample size with these linemates is quite small.
Therein lies the problem -- Neal has historically been a player who benefits from skill on his line. Malkin in Pittsburgh, Johansen in Nashville, Perron in Nashville. But he's been stuck with limited producers here in Calgary, with very little time with the top offensive guys. One or two shifts a game after PKs isn't going to cut it -- there's no way to develop chemistry with those deployments.
And what other options do the Flames have? Frolik was a great influence on Tkachuk and Backlund, but he's most likely gone. Czarnik and Mangiapane are there, but while they are good influences on analytics, removing Mangiapane from Ryan would also disrupt team chemistry and the coaching staff seems to have very little trust in Czarnik.
Writing off Neal as "a bust" or "the new Brouwer" is easy to do, but there is reason to believe that he has simply been misplaced in Calgary. There is a clear opportunity this season for him to play with Matthew Tkachuk and produce -- and then, maybe, after that, be traded.