Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelson
Burakovsky might be a buy low candidate only because this has been his worst season over the last 3 seasons at least.
But look at Burakovsky's 5v5 production over the last 3 seasons:
Andre Burakovsky
2016-19: 1.88 in 1989:43
Quality of Competition: 40
Quality of Teammates: 42
DZ Starts: 51%
Sam Bennett
2016-2019: 1.37 in 2624:19
Quality of Competition: 53rd percentile
Quality of Teammates: 48th percentile
DZ Starts: 43%
One way to look at this is that Burakovsky has the 2nd highest rate of production at 5 v 5 while playing with the worst teammates of the group. He is playing against the worst competition of the group, but also starts more often in the defensive end than in the offensive end.
I think this is very positive.
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I had to verify the bolded because while stats are nice that seemed really dubious, so I took a look at the scoring logs for these two players and tabulated the list of players who also had a point on any even-strength points they did. Here is what I ended up with
Burakovsky 2016-19
I guess I'm skeptical. That looks like a lot of points from Backstrom and Niskanen, and then a lot of time spent with Eller and Connolly. Connolly is a 6th overall pick with higher P/60 than Burakovsky, while Eller is basically a Backlund that gets to feast on lesser competition.
Do you think Eller-Connolly is truly a worse set of linemates than Jankowski-Hathaway or Versteeg-Brouwer or Jankowski-Neal-that-can't-shoot? I'm pretty skeptical of that being the case.
If anything, Brett Connolly is the Capital we should be targetting. RHS, better pedigree, better production.