Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
41?
That's somewhat disingenuous to what's been said. The Flames were something like -5 on March 1st before everything hit the fan.
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How is it disingenuous? It's a stat that is representative of the entire season. It's also one that usually correlates to making the playoffs.
2017-18 -36 Missed
2016-17 +5 Made
2015-16 -29 Missed
2014-15 +25 Made
2013-14 -32 Missed
2012-13 -32 Missed
2011-12 -24 Missed
2010-11 +13 Missed
2009-10 -6 Missed
2008-09 +6 Made
2007-08 +2 Made
2006-07 + 32 Made
2005-06 +18 Made
2003-04 +24 Made
2002-03 -42 Missed
2001-02 -19 Missed
2000-01 -39 Missed
1999-00 -45 Missed
1998-99 -23 Missed
1997-98 -35 Missed
1996-97 -25 Missed
1995-96 +1 Made
1994-95 +28 Made
1993-94 +46 Made
1992-93 +40 Made
1991-92 -9 Missed
1990-91 +81 Made
1989-90 +83 Made
1988-89 +128 Made - Won Stanley Cup
The above are the results of the last 30 seasons, of which 29 were played. The Flames had a minus goal differential in 14 of those seasons. They missed the playoffs all 14. They had 15 seasons where they had a positive goal differential. They made the playoffs in 14/15 of these seasons. The only one they missed was in 2010-11, when they finished 10th in the conference with 94 points. The season with the best goal differential (1988-89) saw them win a Stanley Cup.
Here's my conclusion. In a game where wins are decided by which team scores more goals, it's better to score more goals than the opposition. If you consistently score more goals than the teams you are playing you will have a positive goal differential. The bigger your positive goal differential, the more games you are likely to win. The more games you win, the more points you'll get, which leads to the odds you are more likely to make the playoffs and compete for the Stanley Cup. Once in the playoffs, the same frame of mind stays, where you should try and score more goals than the opposition.
They don't award teams entry into the playoffs based on their underlying stats, but it seems to me that if you earn points by scoring more goals than the opposition, you should try and do that. If you look at the league, the top 16 teams in goal differential contains 15 of the playoff teams. The only one in a playoff spot that is not in the top 16 is New Jersey, which is 17th. Dallas is 15th in goal differential, but is not in a playoff spot.
If you look at CF% 3 of the top 4 teams aren't anywhere near the playoffs. 3 of the 4 teams with the worst CF% are in the playoffs. This leads me to believe that CF% isn't the greatest predictor of who will score goals, win games, and/or make the playoffs. The Flames are out Corsiing a lot of teams. That's not what is winning games. There isn't a direct correlation to having a high CF% and winning games. There is a direct correlation to having a positive goal differential and winning games. It doesn't matter how much analysis you do into understanding and tracking these advanced (secondary?) stats, when the whole point of hockey is to score more goals than the other team. Spending a lot of time reviewing something that isn't related to winning, doesn't help.