Quote:
Originally Posted by Tinordi
I look at the Hamonic deal in economic terms. Is the marginal value of Hamonic greater than the value of the assets? We'll never know but just keying in on Hamonic's value to the team, it's difficult to tell which is not a great first indicator.
I think it's clear he's made this team better, but the question is how much better? To me that's where Treliving's valuation in the trade was off. I don't think Hamonic has really pushed this team over the edge, if you're trading a 1st and two 2nd rounders then you ideally want that to lead to a step change not incremental change which is what has happened.
I get Treliving's strategy here, it's basically Nashville. If you don't have that elite talent up front in the lineup then you don't and there's no way to get it besides tanking or getting incredibly lucky in the draft. Elite front-line talent is just not available for trade.
Good to great defencemen are available in the trade market however, and there's a theory in team building that a great defence can overcome lack of scoring and elite talent up front. Nashville being the preferred example.
Unfortunately, Treliving's gamble hasn't paid off. He's assembled a poor-man's version of Nashville's D, with roughly similar forward talent. And it's for that that I'm not a fan on the trade. I think the 1st rounder has a higher likelihood of being the asset that stimulates a step change. Think drafting Barzal or Ehlers or someone like that than having Hamonic.
But I don't hold it against Treliving. He's seen the writing on the wall. The rebuild is over, what you see is what you get with the talent levels on this team at forward. He had to go in with this group and try to push it over the top. It didn't work, but I don't blame him for trying. Too many fans promote play-it-safe management. If you have a window you need to go for it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Unfortunately we're on the latter half.
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In addition to what Textcritic already wrote about the Hamonic trade not paying off..so far, the only other thing I'd add is that I think fans aren't too safe, they're far too speculative.
There's an obsession with magic beans management. The idea that what we have on the farm, what we have in our junior prospects, what we have in our future draft picks, is going to be the thing that pushes us over the edge and that they should be promoted to the big club right away and replace the vets who are over-the-hill and don't play hungry or with passion.
Fans tend to forget that the GM is making moves to win and also to preserve his job. Call it old school outdated thinking but 99% of GMs are wary of adopting a strategy that relies heavily on drafting top end talent, especially with mid round picks, because in all likelihood they'll be fired well before those picks ever payoff, if they ever do.