Quote:
Originally Posted by Acey
If Trump wins FL and NC, then it could get ugly. A MI / PA split would then win it in the tie, even with IA/NH blue.
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Well sure... But Trump has a much better chance of winning both Florida and North Carolina than he does of winning either of Michigan or Wisconsin. The only scenario where he wins Michigan is if the polls are way off and he is winning the national popular vote by 4 or 5 points, in which case he likely wins all of those states. Wisconsin and Michigan are demographically pretty similar (I believe Wisconsin is slightly whiter and more rural overall), so if they tip, I think they tip together.