Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h
Do they though? Every team slumps, we just follow the Jays closely, so when they do it's annoying. I have tried to find the standard deviation of runs per game, etc but haven't been able to. I don't have the time to chart every team and amount of runs scored per game etc. Maybe someone knows whether this is actually accurate....
|
Every team slumps, the question is: what do they do about it?
The Jays scored 891 runs last year. They are on pace to score 785 this year. That's 106 less, or a drop of 0.66 runs per game (12%).
Despite hitting more home runs (on pace for 268 vs 232 last year)
And their lineup is
better. Let's look at the changes...
Unchanged:
Donaldson
EE
Bautista
Tulo
Martin
Pillar
that is the entire heart of the lineup. Then we have:
Travis back from injury, replacing Goins at 2nd - huge upgrade
Upton replacing Revere in LF - both under-achieved, call it a wash (though Upton is better)
Saunders/Smoak replaces Collabello/Smoak - that is also an upgrade, especially when you consider how much they have reduced Smoak's playing time
So the lineup is improved but the number of runs is down significantly. Why?:
Bautista hasn't had a great year, due to a couple injuries. And the team overall has had more injuries - not a lot, by any stretch, but a bit more than last year
But the big reasons are strike outs and situational hitting.
The Jays haven't adjusted to the way teams pitch them.
They are seeing way fewer fast balls and way more breaking balls than last year. And yet HRs are
up. But so are Ks. And averages, especially with RISP, are down. What do the higher HR totals and higher K totals suggest? They are swinging for the fences.
Instead of taking what teams are giving them, the Jays are swinging for the fences every night, almost every at bat. And when the pitcher sucks, they are having success (HRs are up). But when the pitching is good (most nights) they are striking out and leaving runners on base.
Is American League pitching better than last year? No. The Jays are just making it easier on them with their approach to the plate. And with their lack of being able to adjust to how they are being pitched.
And that is on the manager. He sets the tone. And he just keeps telling them to keep doing the same things.