Quote:
Originally Posted by T@T
|
A 4% bounce is expected and the 4 name ballot is likely the most predictive for this election. A 4 point bounce is essentially the average convention bounce.
So poll could read. Probability of Trump winning election relatively unchanged and this poll is more or less meaningless until at least 2 weeks after the Dems convention when the bounces have filtered out.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...nvention-bump/
My presence of 538 models is their polls plus as it factors in convention bounce and it's flat post convention meaning the race as a result of the convention is relatively unchanged. It does mean the convention wasn't a disaster