Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
Does anyone really believe this? The players available in this year's draft look terrific, but I have serious doubts that they are of the same calibre as Lemieux, Crosby, Doughty, or *barf* McDavid. Maybe? But probably not.
Moreover, even if the Flames win out over their last two games, I also do not believe that the marginal decrease this will produce to their lottery odds are enough to make all the difference.
I am cheering for a win, because I always do. I like watching the Flames win. As for their draft prospects, I'm not convinced that even landing Laine or Puljajarvi will come with "franchise changing" implications. It is far, FAR more important for teams like TO and Vancouver to get one of the three lottery picks because their future IS currently that bleak. But even with the core of players the Flames have in place today, there are LOTS of reasons to be very bullish about the future without adding one of this year's big three. It would be terrific to draft one of them, but the Flames will be just fine even in the event they end up picking eighth.
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I partially do. I think Laine would be a franchise changer personally, I think his potential is that high. 40+ goal scoring potential, I think he could be among the top 3 goalscorers in the NHL. Matthews has even higher upside than Monahan and Bennett IMO. Puljujarvi I think would be a big add as well with his size, motor, skating all mixed with some good skill although I don't necessarily think he has as much upside as Matthews/Laine.
Even though the top 12 is great you always want to have your pick of the players in a tier. In this case the Flames have very immediate and specific needs of adding a power forward, a 1st line calibre skilled forward or adding another top 3 defenseman to give us an elite d-core moving forward. I'd say preferably we draft a power forward given our organizational weakness at that position. The higher we draft the more likely we can choose a power forward over another type of player. I think outside of drafting top 3 both Tkachuk and Dubois really fit our needs quite well even though neither is a right shot. Chychrun may have similar upside to Ekblad and it would be hard to turn that down if the Flames scouts think that way. I think after about pick 6 you may start to get guys that are less ideal for various reasons.
Right now we can finish anywhere from 3rd last to 6th last. At 3rd last we'd have a 34.2% chance of drafting top 3. At 6th last we'd have a 23.5% chance of drafting top 3. That is a 10.7% difference, not insignificant at all.
More importantly finishing 3rd last would give you an 86% chance top draft top 5. If you didn't win one of the lotteries you'd have your pick of that 2nd tier which would be ideal. As well drafting 4th or 5th gives you the potential of dealing up into the top 3 to get that big right shooting winger we really need.
Finishing 6th last would give you a 76.4% chance of NOT drafting top 5. Less chances to deal up. More uncertainty about getting your top choice in that 2nd tier.
I mean we're probably fine either way. But there is actually a huge difference in expected outcomes between the spots we can finish. We might still get a guy we love at #6 or 7 but boy, getting #4 gives us a lot of options to trade up/down or just take a great guy. And the chance increase of winning the lottery is a bit larger than people realize because the 1% difference between most of the picks affects all 3 lotteries and thus is multiplied to be more like 3% difference.
Anyways I understand both sets of fans. It's fine to want us to beat our biggest rival. But it's also fine to take the long term view and wish for better expected draft lottery outcomes which may affect this franchise for the next decade. I'll be hoping for a loss while cheering the Flames on. Don't hate.