Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
Can you provide examples of this statement? (legit question, don't know if its right or wrong)
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Another perspective. Some people asking for a steady 20-25 G, it is a pretty tall order.
Firstly, the power forwards mentioned all came straight from junior to the NHL. (Iggy, Bert, Lucic, Shanahan). They didn't need seasoning in the minors.
Lucic peaked at age 23. 30 G 62 points. Had 27 points his first season straight out of junior. Paid the price earlier, picks his spots more now. Reasonably steady now, 5 seasons later, probably good for 25 G 50
Iggy came out of the gate with 21 G and 50 pts. When he was 23 he had improved to 29 G 63 pts in 77 GP. 2 years later the peak -52 G, 96 pts.
Shanahan had 72 points in 73 games in his third season at age 21. Peaked at age 25 with 52 G, 102 Pts. He was also putting up at least 100 PIMs like clockwork from year 1 through his 18th season. Engaged.
Bertuzzi peaked around 27-28 where he had his only two seasons greater than point per game. 85 in 72 then 97 in 82. From age 25-30 he was consistently good for 25 G (x3) with single instances of 36 and 46. The rest of his career outside those years, 5 or 6 seasons with 15-18 G and 40-45 pts. When Bert had his couple of big seasons, he was playing a big game still. Bert broke in at age 20 with 39 pts in 76 GP, regressed for a few years, then was good for points in the 30s, hitting 50 at age 25.
Now Ferly is 23. Last year 2 G 5 pts in 26 GP. This year 4 G 12 pts in 55 GP. Gone from +1 to -15. The eye test says he is not engaged on a regular basis.
The guy projects for 6 G 18 points.
Owen Nolan is another power forward. Came out fully baked with greater than a point per game at 20 and so on for his first few years, then declined after a few years with a single anomaly season at age 28 where he hit 84 points.
Never mind power forwards. Gretzky's two seasons with greater than 200 points, he was, what 23 and 24?
Back to Ferly
"Being good for 20-25" consistently is hoping that this guy triples or quadruples his production.
He already has stopped playing the game that worked against Van in the playoffs.
In my opinion he is what he is. People don't magically turn in to 3 or 4 times the player they were at the peak age for players, as they move forward. Particularly when you are observing plateau or regression when they are at their peak.
By the way, guess how old Bouma was last year? 25? That was likely the peak.
Sorry to the Ferly lovers, but the probabilities don't project to him being somebody who magically becomes something that he is not already. He may have actually peaked in the playoffs last year