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Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
Agreed. However the budget for an NHL team scouting a lot bigger, I'm sure most of them have much better coverage in general than the independent scouting services. They are the ones potentially investing millions of dollars into particular kids. Obviously some teams suck at drafting and an independent service might do a better job.
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In some cases, a potato might do a better job.
http://canucksarmy.com/2014/5/20/we-...outing-problem
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But it has to make you wonder when certain kids fall. Sometimes it doesn't really mean anything (Fowler, Forsberg) but sometimes it does (Esposito, Robbie Schremp.) Apparently Shinkaruk had terrible interviews for some reason. Apparently lots of people aren't convinced his game will translate to the NHL.
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Fowler and Forsberg failed? I don't know what you're talking about there. Guys like Schremp, it's easy to see how they fail - that type of player has always been a risk / reward scenario. High upside, but the way most teams are constructed you just can't use him if he doesn't pan out. He was never going to turn into Raffi Torres (who, whatever you think of him, was a high pick who ultimately turned into a useful bottom 6 guy for a number of years).
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Even Treliving admitted that they weren't sure his game will translate to the NHL. So at this point he's still very much a gamble. Due to his boom/bust nature I have him lower but I'd understand why people might emphasize the upside and not be as concerned about whether he busts or not.
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Yeah, this is exactly it: I think this is the type of gamble you have to make to be successful going forward. Guys who can fill out your bottom 6 are going to continue to get easier to replace on the open market for next to nothing, so "low downside risk" has limited value for me.
Meanwhile, getting a guy who turns into a top end offensive threat is going to become more and more impossible without drafting / developing that player from the stage at which Shinkaruk is now; e.g., "obviously promising signs but we don't know if his game will translate". Gotta buy low, or you'll never get them.