Quote:
Originally Posted by ernie
Hypothetical match up polling for the general election isn't reliable at this point in time so saying he's close or leading in this state or that state really doesn't mean much. Remember, he has had zero luck increasing his polling within his own party where over 50% of party members do not want to see him as their nominee. He has a farily firm 30-35% of the GOP vote, however, the interesting thing is that for the most part many caucus voters are undecided up to a day or two before the vote and he's not winning of those undecideds. Basically, the undecided voters are only undecided on who they will vote for instead of Trump.
If he wins the nomination it will be a very unmotivated GOP base and even hatred of Hillary isn't going to stir them. They will be busily looking inward at the way the party is working and not concentrating on helping Trump one bit.
Meanwhile, Trump will lose the women vote and any minority vote by a large margin. He'll also lose the independent vote. He's despised by these groups not simply "unknown" to them. If he gets the nomination it'll be ad after ad of racist quotes, misogynist quotes, and quotes that he has ZERO clue how the world and the nation actually works.
|
Yeah, remember the Romney quote about the 47%, and how much that damaged his election campaign. And that was a far more defensible quote than the average Trump soundbite. American independent voters can be swayed by a lot of different approaches, but really heavily divisive rhetoric tends to cause a negative reaction.
I recall seeing a clip somewhere on a news network last week where they were showing undecided Republican voters some footage of Trump's rally speeches, particularly when he was going off on profanity-laden tirades. It was incredibly awkward, and you could see these people going from genuinely considering Trump to being embarrassed that they had ever considered him. Ultimately he's going to fail on the 'looks presidential' test in a big way.