Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacks
NDP are going to run out of money either way.
The Tories and NDP don't directly compete for voters, the Tories need to pull 5-10% of the swing voters that they share with the Liberals. A side benefit is that the weaker the Liberals are the more they will attack the NDP to try and keep their support, a strong Liberal Party will almost exclusively attack the Tories. I suspect the plan is to keep pounding on the Liberals and have them do the dirty work attacking the NDP. Once the election is well underway the NDP will run out of money and the Liberals should recover a bit.
My opinion is that the path to government is:
- The NDP loses a bunch of seats in Quebec to the Bloc and Liberals. The Tories can easily get 12+ seats if the NDP don't do well.
- Retain a large chunk of Ontario with a Lib/NDP split.
- Retain the majority of the Prairies.
- Hope like hell they don't get killed in BC.
- The Maritimes are pretty much a write off.
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Besides the rural seats in Ontario - at this point I'd bet they lose a bunch of what they currently hold to the NDP.