Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
I agree that its possible we have 5 scum, however, I think if that was the case that we'd have seen a stronger push for a hammer when either squiggs or party had the vote run up on them. It seems probable that one of them is town. (I think both are suspicious, but the odds that we went two for two on running the vote up on scum isn't good, imo).
Both of them had 4 votes, and we're at 7 for a hammer, so scum/turned being 5 people could have pretty easily added 3 more and gotten the lynch to go into night with a 50/50 chance of winning the game before the start of the next day.
Normally I'm a math guy, but this is more of a psychology game, and I doubt the hosts would have been able to resist the opportunity to go for the win. If they didn't get a turn they'd still have a good chance to win on lynch tomorrow.
So I think it's most likely that we have 3 scum and 1 turned. In your two scenarios, that probably means whoever got the spore today didn't turn. If that's the case, should whoever gets it send it to pux to get a no-spore day or send it to our second choice, so we can lynch them tomorrow and potentially net a host and stop the spore for a day? If we send it to pux she has to send it on...
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Well, I think GGG is right. If the Government Agent did kill SebC they should come forward as the potential for 2 turned exist, and we are in a potential lynch or lose scenario. It only means we could lose. I think we should discuss that, and see if anyone disagrees with that thinking.
But even with 5 scum, the scum don't get a free win if we lynch town. They need to first avoid having the Government Agent kill one of the turned and hope that the spore is passed to a passenger who turns. If they aren't in danger, or at least know they could sway the vote without coming off too obvious, it makes sense to just sit back and relax without tipping their hand needlessly.
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As for my vote for Timbo. I'm not one to usually use percentages for things like this but it illustrates my thinking best. I may be 45% sure Squiggs96 is host. Not confident, but about as confident I can get in a game like this. If I had to pick a percentage for Timbo being host, maybe at tops 20%. I just think if he is town, he's got about a 50% chance of being turned so I feel like there's a much better chance of hitting scum, maybe not host.
On top of the reasons listed in my voting for him, which all point to him playing a different game today than he was yesterday, I don't think he's been in any trouble at all. He's a good candidate for the spore. As far as I know he's not on anyone's host list. He was almost certainly not going to get lynched today and had very little reason for him to be checked at the time he would have been sent the spore.