Quote:
Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen
Why not?
<snip - list of scenarios>
We may not be in a lynch or lose scenario. But the only people who know for sure are the scum.
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I agree that its possible we have 5 scum, however, I think if that was the case that we'd have seen a stronger push for a hammer when either squiggs or party had the vote run up on them. It seems probable that one of them is town. (I think both are suspicious, but the odds that we went two for two on running the vote up on scum isn't good, imo).
Both of them had 4 votes, and we're at 7 for a hammer, so scum/turned being 5 people could have pretty easily added 3 more and gotten the lynch to go into night with a 50/50 chance of winning the game before the start of the next day.
Normally I'm a math guy, but this is more of a psychology game, and I doubt the hosts would have been able to resist the opportunity to go for the win. If they didn't get a turn they'd still have a good chance to win on lynch tomorrow.
So I think it's most likely that we have 3 scum and 1 turned. In your two scenarios, that probably means whoever got the spore today didn't turn. If that's the case, should whoever gets it send it to pux to get a no-spore day or send it to our second choice, so we can lynch them tomorrow and potentially net a host and stop the spore for a day? If we send it to pux she has to send it on...