Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
This is a bad idea in regular mafia as you ensure that only townies die. I've been bouncing around in my head if this is true as well here. I think it is and that even randomly lynching is better than a no lynch.
We have a 1/17 chance of lynching our agent. And a 3/17 chance of lynching scum and a 1/34 chance of lynching a turned. So good outcomes are over 3 times as likely as terrible outcomes.
Lynching a townie means the number of turned to win decrease by .5. Lynching a turned increases the number by 1.
So I think the question asked is does a 3/17 chance of lynching scum worth a 1/17 chance of lynching our agent and a .5 person reduction in the number of turned required.
I'm also not sure we gain anything by waiting. The only info we might gain by doing nothing is who the spore was passed to and that's only a 50% chance. And the person to act on that info is the agent not the town.
So I would say a no lynch plays into scum hands.
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Aren't the numbers 3/17 for scum, 14/17 we lynch our own assuming our own didn't turn?
If we don't lynch our own guy and the infected doesn't turn, we stay with 14 guys. If we lynch our own guy and the infected turns, we have 12 guys.
I suppose we need to decide, as a group if we go for a pile on lynch or not.