Quote:
Originally Posted by wretched34
I looked into underlying stats....
What a waste of time....
So Corsi is if I understand correctly, the number of shots on net + missed net + blocked, and Fenwick is Shots + Missed shots....
And apparently, a team with high corsi and fenwick are what advanced stats guru's deem the better teams??
And PDO is a teams Shooting % + their Save %, and if you're not deemed a good team by the first two stats, having a PDO above 100 means you're lucky and it's unsustainable, and if it's below 100, it's bad luck, but will surely fix itself if you just keep shooting wide?
Which is why advanced stats geniuses deem the Flames success unsustainable, because their corsi and fenwick are low, but PDO is high?
So..... if you're shooters score more often, and your goalies save more often, but you don't take lots of wreckless shots, you're team is destined to fail?
I've confused myself.
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The problem is that Corsi doesn't control for shot quality.
The underlying assumption to the stat is that all shots are equally weighted (unless I don't understand it).
So it is always at risk of a "mysterious outlier" because that assumption is obviously flawed.
If Corsi just had some way to control for shot quality. Oh, say...like how many goals are scored.