Quote:
Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf
ill try and make it more simple for you
if you take the argument that a goalie loses 10 points on his save percentage, it would still make sense to start the goalie, if even with that 10 point loss his save percentage was higher than the backups
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I see now what you're saying, but it's still wrong. The difference is across all goalies. The more common deployment is the starter plays the first game, the backup plays the second - so it's already skewed AGAINST the rested goalie if you assume that backups generally have the lower save percentage.
Where you're quite right - if not on the numbers but just in terms of common sense - is if your backup is just terrible, and your starter's a Vezina candidate, you might think twice. If you're running a tandem of Carey Price / Anders Lindback, well...
Then there's the fact that you do have to rest your starter SOMEtime, and it might as well be a game where he's statistically likely to be considerably worse than usual - opportunity cost.
I'm not saying there aren't circumstances where it's a good idea, but your particular chart doesn't support the point your were trying to make.