Quote:
Originally Posted by heep223
Oh, I was referencing the website sportsclubstats.com: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html . If you look at their model and the millions of simulations it runs, it came up with only one scenario that the Stars make the playoffs.
Records required to get to 96 points:
Minnesota: 3-5-1 (9 games left)
Vancouver: 4-6-0 (10 games left)
Winnipeg: 4-5-0 (9 games left)
Calgary: 5-4-0 (9 games left)
Los Angeles: 6-4-0 (10 games left)
Dallas: 8-1-0 (9 games left)
Dallas has to go 8-1-0 to get to 96 points. In addition, they are fighting for the wild card spots which brings the Pacific teams in to the race (no chance at division with Hawks 14 points ahead). So they need to go 8-1 and (not or) they need 3 of the teams above them to be worse than their records above, which are all very achievable.
Sure there's a chance. But it's so infinitesimal that's it's not really a chance. They are done.
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Sportsclubstats is giving them a 1% chance, which is not quite the same as finding one scenario in millions of runs. Which is fine and dandy but that 1% chance takes into account of their entire season, over the last 10 games they are 8-2-0. A pace like that over the next 7-1-1 or so, would put them in at least a decent chance to claim a playoff spot.
They don't need to beat all 3 teams, only Winnipeg and one of Los Angeles or Calgary. If they beat Winnipeg and Los Angeles, for example, but are below Calgary, Calgary gets third in the Pacific and Dallas would claim the Wildcard spot. So what they really need is a Winnipeg collapse, a strong record and probably to beat Calgary in their 2 games they have left. It's unlikely, but it's not impossible.
Like I said, for all intents and purposes their season is done, the chances of them making the playoffs are low. I disagree with you in saying that they know it's done. They will know it's done if they lose tonight. Until then, they're taking it one game at a time and praying.