Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
Games in hand always muddle things. If you remember that 95 points (the likely number now as that's LA's pace) is really just 12 games over .500, then the wildcard standings look like this:
1. Vancouver 8
2. Winnipeg 8
3. San Jose 7
4. LA 7
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5. Calgary 4
6. Dallas 3
7. Colorado
It really puts things into perspective. We had a great first half, but would now have to finish 11 games over .500 just to tie LA. We only managed 4 games over.500 to date, so it's hard to see that suddenly change, especially with the way the flames are playing right now. We're much closer to Dallas than we are Vancouver, but it's hard to see that if you only look at points. The only way for the flames to make it in is to have one of the top 4 teams on that list take a giant tumble and lower the expected points total
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Wow things have changed since January 14th. That was pretty darn close to the half way point of the season, and now we're pretty much at the three quarter point. Makes for a good time frame for perspective.
Looking at the standings as games over 0.500 it now looks like this (I'm going to have to add Minnesota, as they weren't even included then! I also order then disregarding the divisional rearrangement to keep it simple) :
1. Vancouver 12
2. Minnesota 12
3. Winnipeg 11
4. Calgary 9
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5. LA 9
6. San Jose 7
7. Dallas 2
8. Colorado 2
Vancouver is 4 more games over 0.500 but hasn't really gained any ground as they actually fall closer to the 9th place team (was 4 games, now 3).
Winnipeg has pretty much kept pace with Vancouver, and has seen their lead on 9th diminish. They have a very hard finishing schedule and tonight was one of those home dates they really should've had. Calgary plays both games in hand in them before Winnipeg's next game, so could we see Calgary catch up by the weekend? Another thing to watch is that Calgary's final game of the season is against Winnipeg.
Calgary has gained on every team except Minnesota. As much as they've allowed a little lately, they really gained ground in February. They went from 4 games above 0.500 to 9 games in a quarter of a season. That's a 102pt pace. Not bad. Obviously, Gio's absence is the wildcard in handicapping their chances from here on out. Still looking ok as they have a really easy schedule after the next 2 games. Need to get at least 21 points in their last 19 to have a chance, 23 to ensure playoffs.
LA for all their bluster has only played 2 games above 0.500 since January 14th. They lost 8 in a row, won 8, lost 3, etc. Quite inconsistent. It's hard to believe that the Kings could miss, but they very well could. The road has been brutal for them and that is where most of their remaining games will be played.
San Jose has played 0.500 hockey and that may have buried them. There's time and they've got some very good players, but they just aren't doing it consistently enough for me to believe they can jump 3 teams.
Dallas and Colorado are done. Even a Minnesota like run barely scrapes them in. Neither team has the strong underlying numbers Minnesota did to suggest it's possible either.
The biggest reason for the tightening between the teams in the playoffs is Minnesota. They simply pushed their way in and whomever would've been 8th is now 9th. Minnesota wasn't even an afterthought on January 14th. They were one game
below 0.500, and now sit 12 games above. That's absurd. After some digging, I found some interesting trends. We already know their goaltending has improved. They had the league's worst save% on January 14th, and the league's best since. Another interesting thing happened though. Their shot attempts % has decreased (corsi% 5v5), but their actual shots % (they regularly outshoot opponents 5v5 like they used to) has remained flat. They're shooting the lights out and saving the lights out. Both their save% and shooting% are bound to decrease, but even decent goaltending and reasonable shooting percentages could keep them going with their strong underlying numbers. The real test is what they do with the league's hardest remaining schedule.